2011, 8(1): 95-112. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2011.8.95

Prioritization of delayed vaccination for pandemic influenza

1. 

Department of Epidemiology, Graduate School of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA 15261, United States

Received  March 2010 Revised  September 2010 Published  January 2011

Limited production capacity and delays in vaccine development are major obstacles to vaccination programs that are designed to mitigate a pandemic influenza. In order to evaluate and compare the impact of various vaccination strategies during a pandemic influenza, we developed an age/risk-structured model of influenza transmission, and parameterized it with epidemiological data from the 2009 H1N1 influenza A pandemic. Our model predicts that the impact of vaccination would be considerably diminished by delays in vaccination and staggered vaccine supply. Nonetheless, prioritizing limited H1N1 vaccine to individuals with a high risk of complications, followed by school-age children, and then preschool-age children, would minimize an overall attack rate as well as hospitalizations and deaths. This vaccination scheme would maximize the benefits of vaccination by protecting the high-risk people directly, and generating indirect protection by vaccinating children who are most likely to transmit the disease.
Citation: Eunha Shim. Prioritization of delayed vaccination for pandemic influenza. Mathematical Biosciences & Engineering, 2011, 8 (1) : 95-112. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2011.8.95
References:
[1]

M. Baguelin, A. J. Hoek, M. Jit, S. Flasche, P. J. White and W. J. Edmunds, Vaccination against pandemic influenza A/H1N1v in England: A real-time economic evaluation,, Vaccine, 28 (2010), 2370. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2010.01.002.

[2]

D. Balcan, H. Hu, B. Goncalves, P. Bajardi, C. Poletto, J. J. Ramasco, D. Paolotti, N. Perra, M. Tizzoni, W. Van den Broeck, V. Colizza and A. Vespignani, Seasonal transmission potential and activity peaks of the new influenza A(H1N1): A Monte Carlo likelihood analysis based on human mobility,, BMC Med., 7 (2009). doi: 10.1186/1741-7015-7-45.

[3]

M. F. Boni, B. H. Manh, P. Q. Thai, J. Farrar, T. T. Hien, N. T. Hien, N. Van Kinh and P. Horby, Modelling the progression of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in Vietnam and the opportunities for reassortment with other influenza viruses,, BMC Med., 7 (2009). doi: 10.1186/1741-7015-7-43.

[4]

L. Brouwers, B. Cakici, M. Camitz, A. Tegnell and M. Boman, Economic consequences to society of pandemic H1N1 influenza 2009 - preliminary results for Sweden,, Euro. Surveill, 14 (2009).

[5]

F. Carrat, J. Luong, H. Lao, A. V. Sallé, C. Lajaunie and H. Wackernagel, A 'small-worldlike' model for comparing interventions aimed at preventing and controlling influenza pandemics,, BMC Med., 4 (2006). doi: 10.1186/1741-7015-4-26.

[6]

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), "2009 H1N1 Vaccine Doses Allocated, Ordered, and Shipped by Project Area,", Available from: , (2010).

[7]

Centers For Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Influenza vaccination coverage among children and adults - United States, 2008-09 influenza season,, MMWR Morb. Mortal Wkly. Rep., 58 (2009), 1091.

[8]

Centers For Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Interim results: Influenza A (H1N1) 2009 monovalent vaccination coverage - United States, October-December 2009,, MMWR Morb. Mortal Wkly. Rep., 59 (2010), 44.

[9]

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), (Accessed 19 February, 2010) 2009 H1N1 vaccination recommendations,, http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/vaccination/acip.htm, ().

[10]

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), (Accessed 22 February, 2010) 2009 H1N1 early outbreak and disease characteristics,, http://www.cdc.gov/H1N1FLU/surveillanceqa.htm$\#$graphc, ().

[11]

G. Chowell, S. M. Bertozzi, M. A. Colchero, H. Lopez-Gatell, C. Alpuche-Aranda, M. Hernandez and M. A. Miller, Severe respiratory disease concurrent with the circulation of H1N1 influenza,, N. Engl. J. Med., 361 (2009), 674. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa0904023.

[12]

European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Likely scenarios for influenza in 2010 and the 2010/2011 influenza season in Europe and the consequent work priorities. ECDC forward look risk assessment,, http://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/healthtopics/H1N1/Documents/1003_RA_forward_look_influe nza.pdf, ().

[13]

N. M. Ferguson, D. A. Cummings, S. Cauchemez, C. Fraser, S. Riley, A. Meeyai, S. Iamsirithaworn and D. S. Burke, Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia,, Nature, 437 (2005), 209. doi: 10.1038/nature04017.

[14]

N. M. Ferguson, D. A. Cummings, C. Fraser, J. C. Cajka, P. C. Cooley and D. S. Burke, Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic,, Nature, 442 (2006), 448. doi: 10.1038/nature04795.

[15]

A. E. Fiore, D. K. Shay, K. Broder, J. K. Iskander, T. M. Uyeki, G. Mootrey, J. S. Bresee, N. J. Cox and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Prevention and control of seasonal influenza with vaccines: Recommendations of the advisory committee on immunization practices (ACIP), 2009,, MMWR Recomm. Rep., 58 (2009), 1.

[16]

C. Fraser, C. A. Donnelly, S. Cauchemez, W. P. Hanage, M. D. Van Kerkhove, T. D. Hollingsworth, J. Griffin, R. F. Baggaley, H. E. Jenkins, E. J. Lyons, T. Jombart, W. R. Hinsley, N. C. Grassly, F. Balloux, A. C. Ghani, N. M. Ferguson, A. Rambaut, O. G. Pybus, H. Lopez-Gatell, C. M. Alpuche-Aranda, I. B. Chapela, E. P. Zavala, D. M. Guevara, F. Checchi, E. Garcia, S. Hugonnet, C. Roth and WHO Rapid Pandemic Assessment Collaboration, Science, 324 (2009), 1557. doi: 10.1126/science.1176062.

show all references

References:
[1]

M. Baguelin, A. J. Hoek, M. Jit, S. Flasche, P. J. White and W. J. Edmunds, Vaccination against pandemic influenza A/H1N1v in England: A real-time economic evaluation,, Vaccine, 28 (2010), 2370. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2010.01.002.

[2]

D. Balcan, H. Hu, B. Goncalves, P. Bajardi, C. Poletto, J. J. Ramasco, D. Paolotti, N. Perra, M. Tizzoni, W. Van den Broeck, V. Colizza and A. Vespignani, Seasonal transmission potential and activity peaks of the new influenza A(H1N1): A Monte Carlo likelihood analysis based on human mobility,, BMC Med., 7 (2009). doi: 10.1186/1741-7015-7-45.

[3]

M. F. Boni, B. H. Manh, P. Q. Thai, J. Farrar, T. T. Hien, N. T. Hien, N. Van Kinh and P. Horby, Modelling the progression of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in Vietnam and the opportunities for reassortment with other influenza viruses,, BMC Med., 7 (2009). doi: 10.1186/1741-7015-7-43.

[4]

L. Brouwers, B. Cakici, M. Camitz, A. Tegnell and M. Boman, Economic consequences to society of pandemic H1N1 influenza 2009 - preliminary results for Sweden,, Euro. Surveill, 14 (2009).

[5]

F. Carrat, J. Luong, H. Lao, A. V. Sallé, C. Lajaunie and H. Wackernagel, A 'small-worldlike' model for comparing interventions aimed at preventing and controlling influenza pandemics,, BMC Med., 4 (2006). doi: 10.1186/1741-7015-4-26.

[6]

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), "2009 H1N1 Vaccine Doses Allocated, Ordered, and Shipped by Project Area,", Available from: , (2010).

[7]

Centers For Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Influenza vaccination coverage among children and adults - United States, 2008-09 influenza season,, MMWR Morb. Mortal Wkly. Rep., 58 (2009), 1091.

[8]

Centers For Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Interim results: Influenza A (H1N1) 2009 monovalent vaccination coverage - United States, October-December 2009,, MMWR Morb. Mortal Wkly. Rep., 59 (2010), 44.

[9]

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), (Accessed 19 February, 2010) 2009 H1N1 vaccination recommendations,, http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/vaccination/acip.htm, ().

[10]

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), (Accessed 22 February, 2010) 2009 H1N1 early outbreak and disease characteristics,, http://www.cdc.gov/H1N1FLU/surveillanceqa.htm$\#$graphc, ().

[11]

G. Chowell, S. M. Bertozzi, M. A. Colchero, H. Lopez-Gatell, C. Alpuche-Aranda, M. Hernandez and M. A. Miller, Severe respiratory disease concurrent with the circulation of H1N1 influenza,, N. Engl. J. Med., 361 (2009), 674. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa0904023.

[12]

European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Likely scenarios for influenza in 2010 and the 2010/2011 influenza season in Europe and the consequent work priorities. ECDC forward look risk assessment,, http://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/healthtopics/H1N1/Documents/1003_RA_forward_look_influe nza.pdf, ().

[13]

N. M. Ferguson, D. A. Cummings, S. Cauchemez, C. Fraser, S. Riley, A. Meeyai, S. Iamsirithaworn and D. S. Burke, Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia,, Nature, 437 (2005), 209. doi: 10.1038/nature04017.

[14]

N. M. Ferguson, D. A. Cummings, C. Fraser, J. C. Cajka, P. C. Cooley and D. S. Burke, Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic,, Nature, 442 (2006), 448. doi: 10.1038/nature04795.

[15]

A. E. Fiore, D. K. Shay, K. Broder, J. K. Iskander, T. M. Uyeki, G. Mootrey, J. S. Bresee, N. J. Cox and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Prevention and control of seasonal influenza with vaccines: Recommendations of the advisory committee on immunization practices (ACIP), 2009,, MMWR Recomm. Rep., 58 (2009), 1.

[16]

C. Fraser, C. A. Donnelly, S. Cauchemez, W. P. Hanage, M. D. Van Kerkhove, T. D. Hollingsworth, J. Griffin, R. F. Baggaley, H. E. Jenkins, E. J. Lyons, T. Jombart, W. R. Hinsley, N. C. Grassly, F. Balloux, A. C. Ghani, N. M. Ferguson, A. Rambaut, O. G. Pybus, H. Lopez-Gatell, C. M. Alpuche-Aranda, I. B. Chapela, E. P. Zavala, D. M. Guevara, F. Checchi, E. Garcia, S. Hugonnet, C. Roth and WHO Rapid Pandemic Assessment Collaboration, Science, 324 (2009), 1557. doi: 10.1126/science.1176062.

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