Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering (MBE)

Modelling the strategies for age specific vaccination scheduling during influenza pandemic outbreaks

Pages: 123 - 139, Volume 8, Issue 1, January 2011      doi:10.3934/mbe.2011.8.123

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Diána H. Knipl - Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, H-6720 Szeged, Aradi vértanúk tere 1, Hungary (email)
Gergely Röst - Analysis and Stochastics Research Group, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, H-6720 Szeged, Aradi vértanúk tere 1., Hungary (email)

Abstract: Finding optimal policies to reduce the morbidity and mortality of the ongoing pandemic is a top public health priority. Using a compartmental model with age structure and vaccination status, we examined the effect of age specific scheduling of vaccination during a pandemic influenza outbreak, when there is a race between the vaccination campaign and the dynamics of the pandemic. Our results agree with some recent studies on that age specificity is paramount to vaccination planning. However, little is known about the effectiveness of such control measures when they are applied during the outbreak. Comparing five possible strategies, we found that age specific scheduling can have a huge impact on the outcome of the epidemic. For the best scheme, the attack rates were up to 10% lower than for other strategies. We demonstrate the importance of early start of the vaccination campaign, since ten days delay may increase the attack rate by up to 6%. Taking into account the delay between developing immunity and vaccination is a key factor in evaluating the impact of vaccination campaigns. We provide a general framework which will be useful for the next pandemic waves as well.

Keywords:  Pandemic influenza, compartmental model, vaccination strategies, A(H1N1)v.
Mathematics Subject Classification:  Primary: 92D30.

Received: March 2010;      Accepted: September 2010;      Available Online: January 2011.