Double exponential instability of triangular arbitrage systems

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March 2013, 18(2): 349-376. doi: 10.3934/dcdsb.2013.18.349

Double exponential instability of triangular arbitrage systems

1.	Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde, Sir William Duncan Building, 130 Rottenrow, Glasgow G4 0GE, United Kingdom
2.	Institute for Information Transmission Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences, Bolshoj Karetny lane 19, Moscow 127994 GSP-4

Received June 2012 Revised July 2012 Published November 2012

Abstract
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If financial markets displayed the informational efficiency postulated in the efficient markets hypothesis (EMH), arbitrage operations would be self-extinguishing. The present paper considers arbitrage sequences in foreign exchange (FX) markets, in which trading platforms and information are fragmented. In [18,9] it was shown that sequences of triangular arbitrage operations in FX markets containing $4$ currencies and trader-arbitrageurs tend to display periodicity or grow exponentially rather than being self-extinguishing. This paper extends the analysis to $5$ or higher-order currency worlds. The key findings are that in a $5$-currency world arbitrage sequences may also follow an exponential law as well as display periodicity, but that in higher-order currency worlds a double exponential law may additionally apply. There is an ``inheritance of instability'' in the higher-order currency worlds. Profitable arbitrage operations are thus endemic rather that displaying the self-extinguishing properties implied by the EMH.

Keywords: recurrent sequences, Limits to arbitrage, asynchronous systems., matrix products.

Mathematics Subject Classification: Primary: 91B26, 91B54, 91B64; Secondary: 15A6.

Citation: Rod Cross, Victor Kozyakin. Double exponential instability of triangular arbitrage systems. Discrete & Continuous Dynamical Systems - B, 2013, 18 (2) : 349-376. doi: 10.3934/dcdsb.2013.18.349

References:

[1]	Q. F. Akram, D. Rime and L. Sarno, Arbitrage in the foreign exchange market: Turning on the microscope,, Journal of International Economics, 76 (2008), 237. Google Scholar
[2]	E. A. Asarin, V. S. Kozyakin, M. A. Krasnosel$'$skiĭ et al., "Analiz Ustoichivosti Rassinkhronizovannykh Diskretnykh Sistem,", Nauka, (1992). Google Scholar
[3]	BIS, "Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity in 2010 - Final results,", Bank for International Settlements, (2010). Google Scholar
[4]	BIS, "High-Frequency Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market: New Report from the Markets Committee,", Bank for International Settlements, (2011). Google Scholar
[5]	BIS, "BIS Effective Exchange Rate Indices,", Bank for International Settlements, (2012). Google Scholar
[6]	G. Cassel, The present situation of the foreign exchanges. I,, Economic Journal, 26 (1916), 62. Google Scholar
[7]	A. A. Cournot, "Researches into the Mathematical Principles of the Theory of Wealth,", Macmillan, (1929). Google Scholar
[8]	V. Covrig and M. Melvin, Asymmetric information and price discovery in the FX market: Does Tokyo know more about the yen?,, Journal of Empirical Finance, 9 (2002), 271. Google Scholar
[9]	R. Cross, V. Kozyakin, B. O'Callaghan et al., Periodic sequences of arbitrage: A tale of four currencies,, Metroeconomica, 63 (2012), 250. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-999X.2011.04140.x. Google Scholar
[10]	C. D'Souza, Price discovery across geographic locations in the foreign exchange market,, Bank of Canada Review, Spring 2008 (2008), 19. Google Scholar
[11]	P. H. Dybvig and S. A. Ross, Arbitrage,, in, (2008). Google Scholar
[12]	E. F. Fama, Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work,, Journal of Finance, 25 (1970), 383. Google Scholar
[13]	S. J. Grossman and J. E. Stiglitz, Information and competitive price systems,, American Economic Review, 66 (1976), 246. Google Scholar
[14]	IMF, "SDR Valuation,'', International Monetary Fund, (2012). Google Scholar
[15]	R. Jungers, "The Joint Spectral Radius,", vol. 385 of Lecture Notes in Control and Information Sciences, (2009). doi: 10.1007/978-3-540-95980-9. Google Scholar
[16]	J. M. Keynes, "A Tract on Monetary Reform,'', Macmilan, (1923). Google Scholar
[17]	M. Klau and S. S. Fung, The new BIS effective exchange rate indices,, Bank for International Settlements Quarterly Review, (): 51. Google Scholar
[18]	V. Kozyakin, B. O'Callaghan and A. Pokrovskii, Sequences of arbitrages,, ArXiv.org e-Print archive, (). Google Scholar
[19]	B. R. Marshall, S. Treepongkaruna and M. Young, Exploitable arbitrage opportunities exist in the foreign exchange market,, Discussion Paper, (2007). Google Scholar
[20]	S. A. Ross, A simple approach to the valuation of risky streams,, Journal of Business, 51 (1978), 453. Google Scholar
[21]	P. Samuelson, Proof that properly anticipated prices fluctuate randomly,, Industrial Management Review, 6 (1965), 41. Google Scholar
[22]	Z. Xiaochuan, Reform the international monetary system,, Bank for International Settlements Quarterly Review, 4 (2009), 1. Google Scholar

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References:

[1]	Q. F. Akram, D. Rime and L. Sarno, Arbitrage in the foreign exchange market: Turning on the microscope,, Journal of International Economics, 76 (2008), 237. Google Scholar
[2]	E. A. Asarin, V. S. Kozyakin, M. A. Krasnosel$'$skiĭ et al., "Analiz Ustoichivosti Rassinkhronizovannykh Diskretnykh Sistem,", Nauka, (1992). Google Scholar
[3]	BIS, "Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity in 2010 - Final results,", Bank for International Settlements, (2010). Google Scholar
[4]	BIS, "High-Frequency Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market: New Report from the Markets Committee,", Bank for International Settlements, (2011). Google Scholar
[5]	BIS, "BIS Effective Exchange Rate Indices,", Bank for International Settlements, (2012). Google Scholar
[6]	G. Cassel, The present situation of the foreign exchanges. I,, Economic Journal, 26 (1916), 62. Google Scholar
[7]	A. A. Cournot, "Researches into the Mathematical Principles of the Theory of Wealth,", Macmillan, (1929). Google Scholar
[8]	V. Covrig and M. Melvin, Asymmetric information and price discovery in the FX market: Does Tokyo know more about the yen?,, Journal of Empirical Finance, 9 (2002), 271. Google Scholar
[9]	R. Cross, V. Kozyakin, B. O'Callaghan et al., Periodic sequences of arbitrage: A tale of four currencies,, Metroeconomica, 63 (2012), 250. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-999X.2011.04140.x. Google Scholar
[10]	C. D'Souza, Price discovery across geographic locations in the foreign exchange market,, Bank of Canada Review, Spring 2008 (2008), 19. Google Scholar
[11]	P. H. Dybvig and S. A. Ross, Arbitrage,, in, (2008). Google Scholar
[12]	E. F. Fama, Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work,, Journal of Finance, 25 (1970), 383. Google Scholar
[13]	S. J. Grossman and J. E. Stiglitz, Information and competitive price systems,, American Economic Review, 66 (1976), 246. Google Scholar
[14]	IMF, "SDR Valuation,'', International Monetary Fund, (2012). Google Scholar
[15]	R. Jungers, "The Joint Spectral Radius,", vol. 385 of Lecture Notes in Control and Information Sciences, (2009). doi: 10.1007/978-3-540-95980-9. Google Scholar
[16]	J. M. Keynes, "A Tract on Monetary Reform,'', Macmilan, (1923). Google Scholar
[17]	M. Klau and S. S. Fung, The new BIS effective exchange rate indices,, Bank for International Settlements Quarterly Review, (): 51. Google Scholar
[18]	V. Kozyakin, B. O'Callaghan and A. Pokrovskii, Sequences of arbitrages,, ArXiv.org e-Print archive, (). Google Scholar
[19]	B. R. Marshall, S. Treepongkaruna and M. Young, Exploitable arbitrage opportunities exist in the foreign exchange market,, Discussion Paper, (2007). Google Scholar
[20]	S. A. Ross, A simple approach to the valuation of risky streams,, Journal of Business, 51 (1978), 453. Google Scholar
[21]	P. Samuelson, Proof that properly anticipated prices fluctuate randomly,, Industrial Management Review, 6 (1965), 41. Google Scholar
[22]	Z. Xiaochuan, Reform the international monetary system,, Bank for International Settlements Quarterly Review, 4 (2009), 1. Google Scholar

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