Dates | Apr. 96 | Sep. 96 | Jan. 97 | Apr. 96 | Oct. 97 | Feb. 98 |
Non-irrigated | 203 | 3,200.3 | 2 | 397 | 763 | 2.3 |
Irrigated | 5,958 | 6,747 | 125.3 | 6,091.3 | 142 | 120 |
In this paper, we extend the mathematical model framework of Dembele et al. (2009), and use it to study malaria disease transmission dynamics and control in irrigated and non-irrigated villages of Niono in Mali. In case studies, we use our "fitted" models to show that in support of the survey studies of Dolo et al., the female mosquito density in irrigated villages of Niono is much higher than that of the adjacent non-irrigated villages. Many parasitological surveys have observed higher incidence of malaria in non-irrigated villages than in adjacent irrigated areas. Our "fitted" models support these observations. That is, there are more malaria cases in non-irrigated areas than the adjacent irrigated villages of Niono. As in Chitnis et al., we use sensitivity analysis on the basic reproduction numbers in constant and periodic environments to study the impact of the model parameters on malaria control in both irrigated and non-irrigated villages of Niono.
Citation: |
Table 1. Average Mosquito Population Densities per House in the Three Irrigated and the Three Adjacent Non-irrigated Villages
Dates | Apr. 96 | Sep. 96 | Jan. 97 | Apr. 96 | Oct. 97 | Feb. 98 |
Non-irrigated | 203 | 3,200.3 | 2 | 397 | 763 | 2.3 |
Irrigated | 5,958 | 6,747 | 125.3 | 6,091.3 | 142 | 120 |
Table 2. Total Human Populations in the Three Irrigated and the Three Adjacent Non-irrigated Villages
Non-irrigated | Irrigated |
4,751 | 9,161 |
Table 3. Model Parameters and Descriptions
Regions | Parameters | Descriptions |
Contact rate of humans-mosquitoes | ||
Angular velocity of the mosquito populations | ||
Progression rate from exposed (latent) to infected | ||
Duration of gonotrophic cycle | ||
Non-Irrigated/Irrigated | Duration of extrinsic cycle of transmitted malaria parasite | |
Exposed rate of mosquitoes | ||
Human recovery rate | ||
Human birth/death rate | ||
Human loss of immunity rate | ||
Human blood index | ||
Mosquito probability of daily survival | ||
Non-Irrigated | Infection rate of exposed human | |
Mosquito death rate | ||
Human blood index | ||
Mosquito probability of daily survival | ||
Irrigated | Infection rate of exposed human | |
Mosquito death rate |
Table 4. Model Parameters and Values
Regions | Parameters | Values in Days | Source |
[8] | |||
[Estimated] | |||
[5] | |||
2 days | [11] | ||
Non-Irrigated/ | 12 days | [11] | |
Irrigated | [7] | ||
[7] | |||
[7] | |||
[7] | |||
[12] | |||
[7] | |||
Non-Irrigated | [Estimated][5] | ||
[7] | |||
[12] | |||
[Estimated] | |||
Irrigated | [Estimated][5] | ||
[Estimated] |
Table 5.
Values of
Regions | 0 | 0.20 | 0.30 | 0.35 | 0.39 | |
Non-irrigated | 2.22 | 2.20 | 2.18 | 2.17 | 2.16 | |
Irrigated | 4.65 | 4.61 | 4.57 | 4.54 | 4.52 |
Table 6.
Sensitivity Indices of
Irrigated villages | Non-irrigated villages | ||
Parameters | Sensitivity index | Parameters | Sensitivity index |
Table 7.
Sensitivity Indices of
Irrigated villages | Non-irrigated villages | ||
Parameters | Sensitivity index | Parameters | Sensitivity index |
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