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September  2019, 24(9): 4703-4720. doi: 10.3934/dcdsb.2018330

## The diffusive model for Aedes aegypti mosquito on a periodically evolving domain

 1 School of Mathematical Science, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225002, China 2 Key Laboratory of PCBHFASQ, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225002, China

* Corresponding author

Received  June 2018 Revised  August 2018 Published  January 2019

Fund Project: The work is partially supported by the NNSF of China (Grant No. 11771381, 61877052).

This paper deals with a reaction-diffusion model on a periodically and isotropically evolving domain in order to explore the diffusive dynamics of Aedes aegypti mosquito, where we divide it into two sub-populations: the winged population and an aquatic form. The spatial-temporal risk index $R_0(\rho)$ depending on the domain evolution rate $\rho(t)$ as well as its analytical properties is investigated. The long-time behaviors of the periodic solutions under the condition $R_0(\rho)>1$ and $R_0(\rho)\leq1$ are explored, respectively. Moreover, we consider the specific case where $\rho(t)\equiv1$ to better understand the impact of the periodic evolution rate on the persistence and extinction of Aedes aegypti mosquito. Numerical simulations further verify our analytical results that the periodic domain evolution has a significant impact on the dispersal of Aedes aegypti mosquito.

Citation: Mengyun Zhang, Zhigui Lin. The diffusive model for Aedes aegypti mosquito on a periodically evolving domain. Discrete & Continuous Dynamical Systems - B, 2019, 24 (9) : 4703-4720. doi: 10.3934/dcdsb.2018330
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Zhao, Dynamical Systems in Population Biology. Second Edition, CMS Books in Mathematics/Ouvrages de Math$\acute{e}$matiques de la SMC. Springer, Cham, 2017. doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-56433-3.  Google Scholar

show all references

##### References:
 [1] D. Acheson, Elementary Fluid Dynamics, Oxford University Press, New York, 1990.   Google Scholar [2] L. J. S. Allen, B. M. Bolker, Y. Lou and A. L. Nevai, Asymptotic profiles of the steady states for an SIS epidemic reaction-diffusion model, Discrete Contin. Dyn. Syst. Ser. A, 21 (2008), 1-20. doi: 10.3934/dcds.2008.21.1.  Google Scholar [3] P. $\acute{A}$lvarez-Caudevilla, Y. H. Du and R. Peng, Qualitative analysis of a cooperative reaction-diffusion system in a spatiotemporally degenerate environment, SIAM J. Math. Anal., 46 (2014), 499-531. doi: 10.1137/13091628X.  Google Scholar [4] I. Ant$\acute{o}$n and J. L$\acute{o}$pez-G$\acute{o}$mez, The strong maximum principle for cooperative periodic-parabolic systems and the existence of principal eigenvalues, World Congress of Nonlinear Analysts '92, Vol. Ⅰ-Ⅳ (Tampa, FL, 1992), 323-334, de Gruyter, Berlin, 1996.  Google Scholar [5] N. Baca$\ddot{e}$r and S. Guernaoui, The epidemic threshold of vector-borne diseases with seasonality, J. Math. Biol., 53 (2006), 421-436. doi: 10.1007/s00285-006-0015-0.  Google Scholar [6] M. J. Baines, Moving Finite Element, Monographs on Numerical Analysis, Clarendon Press, Oxford, 1994.   Google Scholar [7] P. A. Bliman, M. S. Aronna, F. C. Coelho and M. A. H. B. da Silva, Ensuring successful introduction of Wolbachia in natural populations of Aedes aegypti by means of feedback control, J. Math. Biol., 76 (2018), 1269-1300. doi: 10.1007/s00285-017-1174-x.  Google Scholar [8] S. Cauchemez, M. Ledrans, C. Poletto, P.Quenel, H. De Valk, V. Colizza and P. Y. Bo$\ddot{e}$lle, Local and regional spread of chikungunya fever in the Americas, Euro surveill, Biometrika, 19 (2014), 20854. Google Scholar [9] E. J. Crampin, E. A. Gaffney and P. K. Maini, Mode-doubling and tripling in reaction-diffusion patterns on growing domains: A piecewise linear model, J. Math. Biol., 44 (2002), 107-128. doi: 10.1007/s002850100112.  Google Scholar [10] R. H. Cui and Y. Lou, A spatial SIS model in advective heterogeneous environments, J. Differential Equations, 261 (2016), 3305-3343. doi: 10.1016/j.jde.2016.05.025.  Google Scholar [11] W. W. Ding, R. Peng and L. Wei, The diffusive logistic model with a free boundary in a heterogeneous time-periodic environment, J. Differential Equations, 263 (2017), 2736-2779. doi: 10.1016/j.jde.2017.04.013.  Google Scholar [12] Y. H. Du, Z. M. Guo and R. Peng, A diffusive logistic model with a free boundary in time-periodic environment, J. Funct. Anal., 265 (2013), 2089-2142. doi: 10.1016/j.jfa.2013.07.016.  Google Scholar [13] Y. H. Du and Z. G. Lin, Spreading-vanishing dichotomy in the diffusive logistic model with a free boundary, SIAM J. Math. Anal., 42 (2010), 377-405. doi: 10.1137/090771089.  Google Scholar [14] D. J. Gubler, Dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever, Clin. Microb. Rev., 11 (1998), 480-496. Google Scholar [15] P. Hess, Periodic-parabolic Boundary Value Problems and Positivity, Pitman Research Notes in Mathematics, Vol. 247. Longman Sci. Tech., Harlow, 1991.  Google Scholar [16] D. H. Jiang and Z. C. Wang, The diffusive Logistic equation on periodically evolving domains, J. Math. Anal. Appl., 458 (2018), 93-111. doi: 10.1016/j.jmaa.2017.08.059.  Google Scholar [17] Y. Kaneko and H. Matsuzawa, Spreading speed and sharp asymptotic profiles of solutions in free boundary problems for nonlinear advection-diffusion equations, J. Math. Anal. Appl., 428 (2015), 43-76. doi: 10.1016/j.jmaa.2015.02.051.  Google Scholar [18] C. X. Lei, Z. G. Lin and Q. Y. Zhang, The spreading front of invasive species in favorable habitat or unfavorable habitat, J. Differential Equations, 257 (2014), 145-166.  doi: 10.1016/j.jde.2014.03.015.  Google Scholar [19] C. Li, Y. M. Lu, J. N. Liu and X. X. Wu, Climate change and dengue fever transmission in China: Evidences and challenges, S. Total Environment, 622-623 (2018), 493-501. Google Scholar [20] H. C. Li, R. Peng and F. B. Wang, Varying total population enhances disease persistence: Qualitative analysis on a diffusive SIS epidemic model, J. Differential Equations, 262 (2017), 885-913. doi: 10.1016/j.jde.2016.09.044.  Google Scholar [21] X. Liang, L. Zhang and X. Q. Zhao, Basic reproduction ratios for periodic abstract functional differential equations (with application to a spatial model for Lyme disease), J. Dyn. Diff. Equat., 261 (2016), 340-372. doi: 10.1016/j.jde.2016.03.014.  Google Scholar [22] Z. G. Lin and H. P. Zhu, Spatial spreading model and dynamics of West Nile virus in birds and mosquitoes with free boundary, J. Math. Biol., 75 (2017), 1381-1409. doi: 10.1007/s00285-017-1124-7.  Google Scholar [23] A. Madzvamuse, Time-stepping schemes for moving grid finite elements applied to reaction-diffusion systems on fixed and growing domains, J. Computational Physics, 214 (2006), 239-263.  doi: 10.1016/j.jcp.2005.09.012.  Google Scholar [24] A. Madzvamuse, E. A. Gaffney and P. K. Maini, Stability analysis of non-autonomous reaction-diffusion systems: the effects of growing domains, J. Math. Biol., 61 (2010), 133-164. doi: 10.1007/s00285-009-0293-4.  Google Scholar [25] A. Madzvamuse and P. K. Maini, Velocity-induced numerical solutions of reaction-diffusion systems on continuously growing domains, J. Computational Physics, 225 (2007), 100-119. doi: 10.1016/j.jcp.2006.11.022.  Google Scholar [26] M. Mimura, Y. Yamada and S. Yotsutani, A free boundary problem in ecology, Japan J. Appl. Math., 2 (1985), 151-186. doi: 10.1007/BF03167042.  Google Scholar [27] M. Mimura, Y. Yamada and S. Yotsutani, Free boundary problems for some reaction-diffusion equations, Hiroshima Math. J., 17 (1987), 241-280.  Google Scholar [28] C. V. Pao, Stability and attractivity of periodic solutions of parabolic systems with time delays, J. Math. Anal. Appl., 304 (2005), 423-450. doi: 10.1016/j.jmaa.2004.09.014.  Google Scholar [29] R. Peng and X. Q. Zhao, A reaction-diffusion SIS epidemic model in a time-periodic environment, Nonlinearity, 25 (2012), 1451-1471. doi: 10.1088/0951-7715/25/5/1451.  Google Scholar [30] L. T. Takahashi, N. A. Maidana, W. Jr. Castro Ferreira, P. Pulino and H. M. Yang, Mathematical models for the Aedes aegypti dispersal dynamics: travelling waves by wing and wind, Bull. Math. Biol., 67 (2005), 509-528. doi: 10.1016/j.bulm.2004.08.005.  Google Scholar [31] Q. L. Tang and Z. G. Lin, The asymptotic analysis of an insect dispersal model on a growing domain, J. Math. Anal. Appl., 378 (2011), 649-656. doi: 10.1016/j.jmaa.2011.01.057.  Google Scholar [32] Q. L. Tang, L. Zhang and Z. G. Lin, Asymptotic profile of species migrating on a growing habitat, Acta Appl. Math., 116 (2011), 227-235. doi: 10.1007/s10440-011-9639-1.  Google Scholar [33] C. R. Tian and S. G. Ruan, A free boundary problem for Aedes aegypti mosquito invasion, Appl. Math. Model., 46 (2017), 203-217. doi: 10.1016/j.apm.2017.01.050.  Google Scholar [34] P. Van den Driessche and J. Watmough, Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission, Math. Biosci., 180 (2002), 29-48. doi: 10.1016/S0025-5564(02)00108-6.  Google Scholar [35] W. D. Wang and X. Q. Zhao, Basic reproduction numbers for reaction-diffusion epidemic models, SIAM J. Appl. Dyn. Syst., 11 (2012), 1652-1673. doi: 10.1137/120872942.  Google Scholar [36] D. Weetman and B. Kamgang, etc, Aedes mosquitoes and aedes-borne arboviruses in africa: Current and future threats, Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health, 15 (2018), 220. Google Scholar [37] X. Q. Zhao, Dynamical Systems in Population Biology. Second Edition, CMS Books in Mathematics/Ouvrages de Math$\acute{e}$matiques de la SMC. Springer, Cham, 2017. doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-56433-3.  Google Scholar
$\rho(t) = 1$. For fixed domain, we have $R_0(1.1)<1$. Graphs $(a)-(c)$ show that $M$ tends to 0
$\rho(t) = e^{0.1(1-\cos(4t))}$. For big evolution rate $\rho(t)$ with $\overline{\rho^{-2}}<1$, we have $R_0(\rho)>1$. Graph $(a)$ shows that $M$ stabilizes to a positive periodic steady state. Graphs $(b)$ and $(c)$, which are the cross-sectional view and contour map respectively, present the periodic evolution of the domain
$\rho(t) = 1$. For fixed domain, we have $R_0(1.1)>1$. Graphs $(a)-(c)$ show that $M$ tends to a positive steady state
$\rho(t) = e^{0.1(\cos(4t)-1)}$. For small evolution rate $\rho(t)$ with $\overline{\rho^{-2}}>1$, we couldn't figure out the value of $R_0(\rho)$. But we can see from graphs $(a)-(c)$ that mosquitoes become extinct eventually
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