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A new weak gradient for the stabilizer free weak Galerkin method with polynomial reduction
Complex dynamics of a SIRS epidemic model with the influence of hospital bed number
1. | Department of Mathematics, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou, 310036, China |
2. | School of Mathematical Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China |
In this paper, the nonlinear dynamics of a SIRS epidemic model with vertical transmission rate of neonates, nonlinear incidence rate and nonlinear recovery rate are investigated. We focus on the influence of public available resources (especially the number of hospital beds) on disease control and transmission. The existence and stability of equilibria are analyzed with the basic reproduction number as the threshold value. The conditions for the existence of transcritical bifurcation, Hopf bifurcation, saddle-node bifurcation, backward bifurcation and the normal form of Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation are obtained. In particular, the coexistence of limit cycle and homoclinic cycle, and the coexistence of stable limit cycle and unstable limit cycle are also obtained. This study indicates that maintaining enough number of hospital beds is very crucial to the control of the infectious diseases no matter whether the immunity loss population are involved or not. Finally, numerical simulations are also given to illustrate the theoretical results.
References:
[1] |
Y. Bai and X. Mu,
Global asymptotic stability of a generalized SIRS epidemic model with transfer from infectious to susceptible, J. of Applied Analysis and Computation, 8 (2018), 402-412.
doi: 10.11948/2018.402. |
[2] |
V. Capasso and G. Serio,
A generalization of the Kermack-McKendrick deterministic epidemic model, Math. Biosci., 42 (1978), 43-61.
doi: 10.1016/0025-5564(78)90006-8. |
[3] |
O. Diekmann, J. A. P. Heesterbeek and M. G. Roberts,
The construction of next-generation matrices for compartmental epidemic models, J. R. Soc., Interface, 7 (2010), 873-885.
doi: 10.1098/rsif.2009.0386. |
[4] |
E. J. Doedel, T. F. Fairgrieve, B. Sandstede, A. R. Champneys, Y. A. Kuznetsov and X. Wang, Auto07p, continuation and bifurcation software for ordinary differential equations, (2007). Google Scholar |
[5] |
J. Guckenheimer, P. Holmes and M. Slemrod, Nonlinear Oscillations, Dynamical Systems and Bifurcations of Vector Fields, Springer, 1983.
doi: 10.1007/978-1-4612-1140-2. |
[6] |
Z. X. Hu, W. B. Ma and S. Ruan,
Analysis of SIR epidemic models with nonlinear incidence rate and treatment, Math. Biosci., 238 (2012), 12-20.
doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2012.03.010. |
[7] |
Z. Hu, P. Bi, W. Ma and S. Ruan,
Bifurcations of an SIRS epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate, Discrete Contin. Dynam. Syst. Ser. B, 15 (2011), 93-112.
doi: 10.3934/dcdsb.2011.15.93. |
[8] |
W. M. Liu, H. W. Hetchote and S. A. Levin,
Dynamical behavior of epidemiological models with nonlinear incidence rates, J. Math. Biol., 25 (1987), 359-380.
doi: 10.1007/BF00277162. |
[9] |
Y. G. Lin, D. Q. Jiang and M. L. Jin,
Stationary distribution of a stochastic SIR model with saturated incidence and its asymptotic stability, Acta Mathematica Scientia, 35 (2015), 619-629.
doi: 10.1016/S0252-9602(15)30008-4. |
[10] |
W. M. Liu, H. W. Hetchote and S. A. Levin,
Influence of nonlinear incidence rates upon the behavior of SIRS epidemiological model, J. Math. Biol., 23 (1986), 187-204.
doi: 10.1007/BF00276956. |
[11] |
Q. Liu, D. Jiang, T. Hayat and B. Ahmad,
Analysis of a delayed vaccinated SIR epidemic model with temporary immunity and Levy jumps, Nonlinear Analysis: Hybrid Systems, 27 (2018), 29-43.
doi: 10.1016/j.nahs.2017.08.002. |
[12] |
G. H. Li and Y. X. Zhang,
Dynamic behaviors of a modified SIR model in epidemic diseases using nonlinear incidence and recovery rates, Plos One, 2017 (2017), 1-28.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0175789. |
[13] |
M. Lu, J. Huang, S. Ruan and P. Yu,
Bifurcation analysis of an SIRS epidemic model with a generalized nonmonotone and saturated incidence rate, J. Diff. Eqs., 267 (2019), 1859-1898.
doi: 10.1016/j.jde.2019.03.005. |
[14] |
M. Lu, J. Huang, S. Ruan and P. Yu, Global dynamics of a susceptible-infectious-recovered epidemic model with a generalized nonmonotone incidence rate, J. Dyn. Diff. Eq., (2020).
doi: 10.1007/s10884-020-09862-3. |
[15] |
K. M. O'Reilly, R. Lowe, W. J. Edmunds, et al., Projecting the end of the Zika virus epidemic in Latin America: A modelling analysis, BMC medicine, 180 (2018).
doi: 10.1186/s12916-018-1158-8. |
[16] |
Y. Pan, D. Pi, S. Yao and H. Meng, The global stability of two epidemic models with nonlinear recovery incidence rate, Modern Physics Letters B, 32 (2018), 1850357, 9 pp.
doi: 10.1142/S0217984918503578. |
[17] |
L. Perko, Differential Equations and Dynamical Systems, Springer, 2001.
doi: 10.1007/978-1-4613-0003-8. |
[18] |
S. Ruan and W. Wang,
Dynamical behavior of an epidemic model with a nonlinear incidence rate, J. Diff. Eqs., 188 (2003), 135-163.
doi: 10.1016/S0022-0396(02)00089-X. |
[19] |
E. Rivero-Esquivel, E. Avila-Vales and G. García-Almeida,
Stability and bifurcation analysis of a SIR model with saturated incidence rate and saturated treatment, Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 121 (2016), 109-132.
doi: 10.1016/j.matcom.2015.09.005. |
[20] |
C. Shan and H. Zhu,
Bifurcations and complex dynamics of an SIR model with the impact of the number of hospital beds, J. Diff. Eqs., 257 (2014), 1662-1688.
doi: 10.1016/j.jde.2014.05.030. |
[21] |
B. Sandstede and Y. C. Xu,
Snakes and isolas in non-reversible conservative systems, Dynamical Systems, 27 (2012), 317-329.
doi: 10.1080/14689367.2012.691961. |
[22] |
Y. Tang, D. Huang, S. Ruan and W. Zhang,
Coexistence of limit cycles and homoclinic loops in a SIRS model with a nonlinear incidence rate, SIAM J. Appl. Math., 69 (2008), 621-639.
doi: 10.1137/070700966. |
[23] |
P. van den Dreessche and J. Watmough,
Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission, Math. Biosci., 180 (2002), 29-48.
doi: 10.1016/S0025-5564(02)00108-6. |
[24] |
W. Wang,
Backward bifurcation of an epidemic model with treatment, Math. Biosci., 201 (2006), 58-71.
doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2005.12.022. |
[25] |
S. Wiggins, Introduction to Applied Nonlinear Dynamics Systems and Chaos, second edition, Texts in Applied Mathematics, vol. 2, Spring-Verlag, 2003. |
[26] |
Y. C. Xu, Y. Yang, F. W. Meng and P. Yu, Modelling and analysis of recurrent autoimmune disease, Nonlinear Analysis, Real World Applications, 54 (2020), 103109, 28 pp.
doi: 10.1016/j.nonrwa.2020.103109. |
[27] |
X. Yuan, F. Wang, Y. Xue and L. Yakui,
Global stability of an SIR model with differential infectivity on complex networks, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 499 (2018), 443-456.
doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2018.02.065. |
show all references
References:
[1] |
Y. Bai and X. Mu,
Global asymptotic stability of a generalized SIRS epidemic model with transfer from infectious to susceptible, J. of Applied Analysis and Computation, 8 (2018), 402-412.
doi: 10.11948/2018.402. |
[2] |
V. Capasso and G. Serio,
A generalization of the Kermack-McKendrick deterministic epidemic model, Math. Biosci., 42 (1978), 43-61.
doi: 10.1016/0025-5564(78)90006-8. |
[3] |
O. Diekmann, J. A. P. Heesterbeek and M. G. Roberts,
The construction of next-generation matrices for compartmental epidemic models, J. R. Soc., Interface, 7 (2010), 873-885.
doi: 10.1098/rsif.2009.0386. |
[4] |
E. J. Doedel, T. F. Fairgrieve, B. Sandstede, A. R. Champneys, Y. A. Kuznetsov and X. Wang, Auto07p, continuation and bifurcation software for ordinary differential equations, (2007). Google Scholar |
[5] |
J. Guckenheimer, P. Holmes and M. Slemrod, Nonlinear Oscillations, Dynamical Systems and Bifurcations of Vector Fields, Springer, 1983.
doi: 10.1007/978-1-4612-1140-2. |
[6] |
Z. X. Hu, W. B. Ma and S. Ruan,
Analysis of SIR epidemic models with nonlinear incidence rate and treatment, Math. Biosci., 238 (2012), 12-20.
doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2012.03.010. |
[7] |
Z. Hu, P. Bi, W. Ma and S. Ruan,
Bifurcations of an SIRS epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate, Discrete Contin. Dynam. Syst. Ser. B, 15 (2011), 93-112.
doi: 10.3934/dcdsb.2011.15.93. |
[8] |
W. M. Liu, H. W. Hetchote and S. A. Levin,
Dynamical behavior of epidemiological models with nonlinear incidence rates, J. Math. Biol., 25 (1987), 359-380.
doi: 10.1007/BF00277162. |
[9] |
Y. G. Lin, D. Q. Jiang and M. L. Jin,
Stationary distribution of a stochastic SIR model with saturated incidence and its asymptotic stability, Acta Mathematica Scientia, 35 (2015), 619-629.
doi: 10.1016/S0252-9602(15)30008-4. |
[10] |
W. M. Liu, H. W. Hetchote and S. A. Levin,
Influence of nonlinear incidence rates upon the behavior of SIRS epidemiological model, J. Math. Biol., 23 (1986), 187-204.
doi: 10.1007/BF00276956. |
[11] |
Q. Liu, D. Jiang, T. Hayat and B. Ahmad,
Analysis of a delayed vaccinated SIR epidemic model with temporary immunity and Levy jumps, Nonlinear Analysis: Hybrid Systems, 27 (2018), 29-43.
doi: 10.1016/j.nahs.2017.08.002. |
[12] |
G. H. Li and Y. X. Zhang,
Dynamic behaviors of a modified SIR model in epidemic diseases using nonlinear incidence and recovery rates, Plos One, 2017 (2017), 1-28.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0175789. |
[13] |
M. Lu, J. Huang, S. Ruan and P. Yu,
Bifurcation analysis of an SIRS epidemic model with a generalized nonmonotone and saturated incidence rate, J. Diff. Eqs., 267 (2019), 1859-1898.
doi: 10.1016/j.jde.2019.03.005. |
[14] |
M. Lu, J. Huang, S. Ruan and P. Yu, Global dynamics of a susceptible-infectious-recovered epidemic model with a generalized nonmonotone incidence rate, J. Dyn. Diff. Eq., (2020).
doi: 10.1007/s10884-020-09862-3. |
[15] |
K. M. O'Reilly, R. Lowe, W. J. Edmunds, et al., Projecting the end of the Zika virus epidemic in Latin America: A modelling analysis, BMC medicine, 180 (2018).
doi: 10.1186/s12916-018-1158-8. |
[16] |
Y. Pan, D. Pi, S. Yao and H. Meng, The global stability of two epidemic models with nonlinear recovery incidence rate, Modern Physics Letters B, 32 (2018), 1850357, 9 pp.
doi: 10.1142/S0217984918503578. |
[17] |
L. Perko, Differential Equations and Dynamical Systems, Springer, 2001.
doi: 10.1007/978-1-4613-0003-8. |
[18] |
S. Ruan and W. Wang,
Dynamical behavior of an epidemic model with a nonlinear incidence rate, J. Diff. Eqs., 188 (2003), 135-163.
doi: 10.1016/S0022-0396(02)00089-X. |
[19] |
E. Rivero-Esquivel, E. Avila-Vales and G. García-Almeida,
Stability and bifurcation analysis of a SIR model with saturated incidence rate and saturated treatment, Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 121 (2016), 109-132.
doi: 10.1016/j.matcom.2015.09.005. |
[20] |
C. Shan and H. Zhu,
Bifurcations and complex dynamics of an SIR model with the impact of the number of hospital beds, J. Diff. Eqs., 257 (2014), 1662-1688.
doi: 10.1016/j.jde.2014.05.030. |
[21] |
B. Sandstede and Y. C. Xu,
Snakes and isolas in non-reversible conservative systems, Dynamical Systems, 27 (2012), 317-329.
doi: 10.1080/14689367.2012.691961. |
[22] |
Y. Tang, D. Huang, S. Ruan and W. Zhang,
Coexistence of limit cycles and homoclinic loops in a SIRS model with a nonlinear incidence rate, SIAM J. Appl. Math., 69 (2008), 621-639.
doi: 10.1137/070700966. |
[23] |
P. van den Dreessche and J. Watmough,
Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission, Math. Biosci., 180 (2002), 29-48.
doi: 10.1016/S0025-5564(02)00108-6. |
[24] |
W. Wang,
Backward bifurcation of an epidemic model with treatment, Math. Biosci., 201 (2006), 58-71.
doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2005.12.022. |
[25] |
S. Wiggins, Introduction to Applied Nonlinear Dynamics Systems and Chaos, second edition, Texts in Applied Mathematics, vol. 2, Spring-Verlag, 2003. |
[26] |
Y. C. Xu, Y. Yang, F. W. Meng and P. Yu, Modelling and analysis of recurrent autoimmune disease, Nonlinear Analysis, Real World Applications, 54 (2020), 103109, 28 pp.
doi: 10.1016/j.nonrwa.2020.103109. |
[27] |
X. Yuan, F. Wang, Y. Xue and L. Yakui,
Global stability of an SIR model with differential infectivity on complex networks, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 499 (2018), 443-456.
doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2018.02.065. |







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