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A mathematical analysis for the forecast research on tourism carrying capacity to promote the effective and sustainable development of tourism

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  • With the continuous and quick development of Chinese tourism industry over years, ecological environmental problems emerge consequently. The contradiction between the development of tourism economy and the protection of ecological environment has become the focus of scientific experts and Chinese government, and accordingly it is of vital importance to predict tourism carrying capacity accurately. In this paper, a new forecast approach is proposed for government staff and scenic spot management staff on tourist carrying capacity, which promotes the effective, healthy and sustainable development of the tourism country.

    Mathematics Subject Classification: Primary: 58F15, 58F17; Secondary: 53C35.


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  • Figure 1.  Schematic diagram of the combinatorial model based on empirical modal decomposition- error backpropagation artificial neural network

    Figure 2.  Structure map of error backpropagation of artificial neural network

    Figure 3.  2010 Mount Emei tourist area daily visitors capacity of the time series data

    Figure 4.  Comparison between the estimated value and the actual value of the tourism carrying capacity using the empirical modal decomposition-error backpropagation

    Figure 5.  Estimation error comparison between the empirical modal decomposition - error backpropagation artificial neural network prediction model and single error backpropagation artificial neural network prediction model

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