Major project risk assessment method based on BP neural network

Lidong Liu; Fajie Wei; Shenghan Zhou

doi:10.3934/dcdss.2019072

Article Contents

2019, Volume 12, Issue 4&5: 1053-1064. Doi: 10.3934/dcdss.2019072 open access

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Major project risk assessment method based on BP neural network

1.
School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China
2.
School of Reliability and System Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China

* Corresponding author: Shenghan Zhou
* Corresponding author: Shenghan Zhou

Received: August 31, 2017

Revised: December 31, 2017

Published: March 2019

The first author is supported by NSFC grant 71501007, 71672006 and 71332003

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Abstract

In order to prevent risks in major projects, it is of great importance to accurately assess risks in advance. Therefore, in this paper, we propose a novel major project risk assessment method with the BP neural network model. Firstly, we propose an index system for major project risk assessment, which is made up of four parts: 1) Schedule risk, 2) Cost risk, 3) Quality risk, and 4) Resource risk. Secondly, we propose a hybrid BP neural network and particle swarm optimization (PSO) model to evaluate risks in major projects. Especially, major project risk assessment results are achieved from the output layers of the BP neural network which is optimized by the PSO algorithm. In our proposed hybrid model, the fitness for each particle is computed through an optimal function, and then the particle can improve its velocity for the next cycle by searching the optimal value. Furthermore, this process should be repeated when the end condition is satisfied. Finally, experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method is able to evaluate risk level of major projects with high accuracy.

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Mathematics Subject Classification: Primary: 58F15, 58F17; Secondary: 53C35.

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Figure 1. Index system for major project risk assessment

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Figure 2. Framework of the BP neural network

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Figure 3. Calculation process of the BP neural network algorithm

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Figure 4. Strucutre of the BP neural network for major project risk assessment

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Figure 5. The trend of training error varying

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Figure 6. Risk assessment results for different major projects

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Figure 7. Error rates of risk assessment for different major projects

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Table 1. Testing data of the major project risk assessment problem

	S1	S2	S3	S4	S5	S6	S7	S8
A1	0.135	0.154	0.228	0.190	0.218	0.184	0.208	0.252
A2	0.145	0.216	0.195	0.221	0.140	0.287	0.210	0.243
A3	0.139	0.138	0.363	0.270	0.139	0.306	0.151	0.274
A4	0.427	0.520	0.599	0.582	0.633	0.618	0.535	0.587
A5	0.451	0.510	0.638	0.605	0.639	0.616	0.630	0.571
A6	0.156	0.210	0.493	0.167	0.305	0.393	0.219	0.289
A7	0.241	0.215	0.390	0.185	0.214	0.334	0.334	0.169
A8	0.371	0.319	0.343	0.208	0.179	0.397	0.380	0.356
A9	0.385	0.419	0.312	0.220	0.303	0.323	0.356	0.117
A10	0.250	0.325	0.383	0.259	0.249	0.366	0.258	0.269
A11	0.237	0.275	0.357	0.352	0.242	0.310	0.363	0.253
A12	0.339	0.349	0.325	0.333	0.321	0.328	0.309	0.329
A13	0.211	0.216	0.329	0.281	0.209	0.295	0.215	0.347
A14	0.341	0.379	0.307	0.330	0.280	0.332	0.247	0.374
A15	0.171	0.182	0.319	0.213	0.148	0.348	0.150	0.195
A16	0.122	0.139	0.577	0.483	0.128	0.481	0.372	0.474
A17	0.149	0.162	0.400	0.335	0.120	0.478	0.468	0.363
A18	0.164	0.225	0.320	0.284	0.212	0.351	0.332	0.398
A19	0.219	0.246	0.176	0.250	0.155	0.316	0.209	0.214
A20	0.124	0.225	0.239	0.135	0.130	0.309	0.209	0.302

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Table 2. Risk scores from experts?opinion

Project	S1	S2	S3	S4	S5	S6	S7	S8
Expert opinion	0.155	0.189	0.362	0.171	0.158	0.347	0.273	0.301

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Table 3. Parameters of the propose BP neural network model

ID	Parameter name	Value
1	Number of hidden layer nodes	35
2	Transfer function type of hidden layer nodes	logsig
3	Neuron excitation function of output layer	purelin
4	Training function	trainlm
5	Learning function	learngdm
6	Maximum iteration number	550
7	Learning rate	0.00001
8	Momentum coefficient	0.94
9	Error rate of network training	0.0001

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