A multi-attribute approach for setting pediatric vaccine stockpile levels

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October 2010, 6(4): 709-727. doi: 10.3934/jimo.2010.6.709

A multi-attribute approach for setting pediatric vaccine stockpile levels

Ruben A. Proano ^1, , Sheldon H. Jacobson ^2, and Janet A. Jokela ^2,

1.	Rochester Institute of Technology, 81 Lomb Memorial Drive, Rochester, NY 14623, United States
2.	University of Illinois, 201 N. Goodwin Ave, Urbana, IL 61801, United States, United States

Received September 2009 Revised March 2010 Published September 2010

Abstract
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Routine immunization is the most effective public health strategy to prevent the occurrence and spread of infectious diseases. An important factor impacting such effectiveness is the availability of a stable vaccine supply. Vaccine supply interruptions are likely and can prevent children from receiving a full course of vaccinations and hence, increase the risk of disease outbreaks. In the United States, public health officials have established the Pediatric Vaccine Stockpile Program (PVSP) as the best strategy to mitigate the impact of vaccine supply interruptions. The PVSP aims to maintain a six-month national supply of routinely administered pediatric vaccines. When deciding how many vaccine doses to order for the next fiscal year, public health decision-makers must not only minimize the impact of potential vaccine shortages, but also, maintain or increase vaccine coverage rates while minimizing costs. This paper uses the relative importance of each pediatric vaccine to define a multi-attribute utility function that models the conflicting interests of PVSP public health decision-makers when ordering vaccines for the next fiscal year. The aim of the resulting framework is to assist decision-makers in managing the PVSP. As an illustration, this paper explores the implications of optimizing a proposed expected utility function under budget constraints for hypothetical (albeit likely) vaccine supply scenarios, and the potential behavior of public health decision-makers.

Keywords: vaccine stockpiles, public health., immunization, inventory, utility, pediatric vaccines.

Mathematics Subject Classification: Primary: 9B50; Secondary: 91B0.

Citation: Ruben A. Proano, Sheldon H. Jacobson, Janet A. Jokela. A multi-attribute approach for setting pediatric vaccine stockpile levels. Journal of Industrial and Management Optimization, 2010, 6 (4) : 709-727. doi: 10.3934/jimo.2010.6.709

References:

[1]	R. M. Anderson and R. M. May, "Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control," Oxford University Press, New York, 1991.
[2]	A. J. Becker, The scaling of repairable spares, Maintenance Management International, 6 (1987), 239-247.
[3]	G. E. G. Beroggi, "Decision Modeling in Policy Management: An Introduction to Analytic Concepts," Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, 1999.
[4]	M. Braglia, A. Grassi and R. Montanari, Multi-attribute classification method for spare parts inventory management, J. Qual. Mainten. Eng., 10 (2004), 55-65. doi: 10.1108/13552510410526875.
[5]	CDC, Vaccines and preventable diseases: Current vaccine shortages and delays, Retrieved July 15, 2007, http://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vac-gen/shortages/default.htm, 2007.
[6]	CDC, Vaccine price list, Retrieved December 7, 2007, http://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/programs/vfc/cdc-vac-price-list.htm, 2007.
[7]	CDC, History and epidemiology of global smallpox eradication, Retrieved January 14, 2007, http://www.bt.cdc.gov/agent/smallpox/training/overview/pdf/eradicationh istory.pdf, 2003.
[8]	R. T. Clemen and T. Reilly, "Making Hard Decisions with DecisionTools®," 2nd edition, Duxbury Thomson Learning, Pacific Grove, California, 2001.
[9]	S. L. Cochi, Vaccine financing from the National Immunization Program's perspective, Retrieved January 14, 2007, www.hhs.gov/nvpo/meetings/jun2004/cochi.ppt, 2004.
[10]	P. G. Coen, P. T. Heath and G. P Garnett, The HiB immunization program in the Oxford region: An analysis of the impact of vaccine administration on the incidence of the disease, Epidemiol. Infect., 123 (1999), 389-402. doi: 10.1017/S0950268899002952.
[11]	P. C. Fishburn, Independence in utility theory with whole product sets, Oper. Res., 13 (1965), 28-45. doi: 10.1287/opre.13.1.28.
[12]	C. F. Simoes Gomes, K. R. A. Nunes, L. H. Xavier, R. Cardoso and R. Valle, Multicriteria decision making applied to waste recycling in Brazil, Omega, 36 (2008), 395-404. doi: 10.1016/j.omega.2006.07.009.
[13]	S. H. Jacobson, E. C. Sewell and R. A. Proano, An analysis of the pediatric vaccine supply shortage problem, Health Care Manage. Sci., 9 (2006), 371-389. doi: 10.1007/s10729-006-0001-5.
[14]	S. H. Jacobson, E. C. Sewell, R. A. Proano and J. A. Jokela, Stockpile levels for pediatric vaccines: How much is enough?, Vaccine, 24 (2006), 3530-3537. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2006.02.004.
[15]	R. L. Keeney and H. Raiffa, "Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs," Cambridge University Press, New York, 1993.
[16]	K. S. Lane, S. Y. Chu and J. M. Santoli, The United States pediatric vaccine stockpile program, Clin. Infect. Dis., 42 (2006), 125-129. doi: 10.1086/499591.
[17]	A. Mas-Colell, M. D. Whinston and J. Green, "Microeconomic Theory," Oxford University Press, New York, 1995.
[18]	National Vaccine Advisory Committee, Strengthening the supply of routinely recommended vaccines in the United States, JAMA, 290 (2003), 3122-3128.
[19]	U. Ozden and E. A. Demirtas, An integrated multi-objective decision-making process for multi-period lot-sizing with supplier selection, Omega, 36 (2008), 509-521. doi: 10.1016/j.omega.2006.12.004.
[20]	K. Price, R. M. Storn and J. A. Lampinen, "Differential Evolution: A Practical Approach to Global Optimization," Natural Computing Series. Secaucus, NJ, 2005.
[21]	S. Stokley, J. M. Santoli, B. W. V. Kelley, A. Vargas-Rosales and L. E. Rodewald, Impact of vaccine shortages on immunization programs and providers, Am. J. Prev. Med., 26 (2004), 15-21. doi: 10.1016/j.amepre.2003.09.010.
[22]	A. Teixeira de Almeida, Multi-attribute decision making on maintenance: Spares and contracts planning, Eur. J. Oper. Res., 129 (2001), 235-241. doi: 10.1016/S0377-2217(00)00220-4.
[23]	S. A. Whalley, J. M. Murray, D. Brown, G. J. M. Webster, V. C. Emery, G. M. Dusheiko and A. S. Perelson, Kinetics of acute Hepatitis B virus infection in humans, J. Exp. Med., 193 (2001), 847-853. doi: 10.1084/jem.193.7.847.
[24]	E. Wilder, Pediatric vaccine stockpiles. a status report on the pediatric vaccine stockpiles, Retrieved January 14, 2007, http://www.hhs.gov/nvpo/nvac/feb05.html and http://www.hhs.gov/nv po/nvac/documents/Wilder0205.ppt, 2005.
[25]	F. Zhou, S. Santoli, M. Messonnier, H. Yusuf, A. Shefer, S. Chu, L. Rodewald and R. Harpaz, Economic evaluation of the 7-vaccine routine childhood immunization schedule in the United States, 2001, Arch. Pediatr. Adolesc. Med., 159 (2005), 1136-1144. doi: 10.1001/archpedi.159.12.1136.

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References:

[1]	R. M. Anderson and R. M. May, "Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control," Oxford University Press, New York, 1991.
[2]	A. J. Becker, The scaling of repairable spares, Maintenance Management International, 6 (1987), 239-247.
[3]	G. E. G. Beroggi, "Decision Modeling in Policy Management: An Introduction to Analytic Concepts," Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, 1999.
[4]	M. Braglia, A. Grassi and R. Montanari, Multi-attribute classification method for spare parts inventory management, J. Qual. Mainten. Eng., 10 (2004), 55-65. doi: 10.1108/13552510410526875.
[5]	CDC, Vaccines and preventable diseases: Current vaccine shortages and delays, Retrieved July 15, 2007, http://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vac-gen/shortages/default.htm, 2007.
[6]	CDC, Vaccine price list, Retrieved December 7, 2007, http://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/programs/vfc/cdc-vac-price-list.htm, 2007.
[7]	CDC, History and epidemiology of global smallpox eradication, Retrieved January 14, 2007, http://www.bt.cdc.gov/agent/smallpox/training/overview/pdf/eradicationh istory.pdf, 2003.
[8]	R. T. Clemen and T. Reilly, "Making Hard Decisions with DecisionTools®," 2nd edition, Duxbury Thomson Learning, Pacific Grove, California, 2001.
[9]	S. L. Cochi, Vaccine financing from the National Immunization Program's perspective, Retrieved January 14, 2007, www.hhs.gov/nvpo/meetings/jun2004/cochi.ppt, 2004.
[10]	P. G. Coen, P. T. Heath and G. P Garnett, The HiB immunization program in the Oxford region: An analysis of the impact of vaccine administration on the incidence of the disease, Epidemiol. Infect., 123 (1999), 389-402. doi: 10.1017/S0950268899002952.
[11]	P. C. Fishburn, Independence in utility theory with whole product sets, Oper. Res., 13 (1965), 28-45. doi: 10.1287/opre.13.1.28.
[12]	C. F. Simoes Gomes, K. R. A. Nunes, L. H. Xavier, R. Cardoso and R. Valle, Multicriteria decision making applied to waste recycling in Brazil, Omega, 36 (2008), 395-404. doi: 10.1016/j.omega.2006.07.009.
[13]	S. H. Jacobson, E. C. Sewell and R. A. Proano, An analysis of the pediatric vaccine supply shortage problem, Health Care Manage. Sci., 9 (2006), 371-389. doi: 10.1007/s10729-006-0001-5.
[14]	S. H. Jacobson, E. C. Sewell, R. A. Proano and J. A. Jokela, Stockpile levels for pediatric vaccines: How much is enough?, Vaccine, 24 (2006), 3530-3537. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2006.02.004.
[15]	R. L. Keeney and H. Raiffa, "Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs," Cambridge University Press, New York, 1993.
[16]	K. S. Lane, S. Y. Chu and J. M. Santoli, The United States pediatric vaccine stockpile program, Clin. Infect. Dis., 42 (2006), 125-129. doi: 10.1086/499591.
[17]	A. Mas-Colell, M. D. Whinston and J. Green, "Microeconomic Theory," Oxford University Press, New York, 1995.
[18]	National Vaccine Advisory Committee, Strengthening the supply of routinely recommended vaccines in the United States, JAMA, 290 (2003), 3122-3128.
[19]	U. Ozden and E. A. Demirtas, An integrated multi-objective decision-making process for multi-period lot-sizing with supplier selection, Omega, 36 (2008), 509-521. doi: 10.1016/j.omega.2006.12.004.
[20]	K. Price, R. M. Storn and J. A. Lampinen, "Differential Evolution: A Practical Approach to Global Optimization," Natural Computing Series. Secaucus, NJ, 2005.
[21]	S. Stokley, J. M. Santoli, B. W. V. Kelley, A. Vargas-Rosales and L. E. Rodewald, Impact of vaccine shortages on immunization programs and providers, Am. J. Prev. Med., 26 (2004), 15-21. doi: 10.1016/j.amepre.2003.09.010.
[22]	A. Teixeira de Almeida, Multi-attribute decision making on maintenance: Spares and contracts planning, Eur. J. Oper. Res., 129 (2001), 235-241. doi: 10.1016/S0377-2217(00)00220-4.
[23]	S. A. Whalley, J. M. Murray, D. Brown, G. J. M. Webster, V. C. Emery, G. M. Dusheiko and A. S. Perelson, Kinetics of acute Hepatitis B virus infection in humans, J. Exp. Med., 193 (2001), 847-853. doi: 10.1084/jem.193.7.847.
[24]	E. Wilder, Pediatric vaccine stockpiles. a status report on the pediatric vaccine stockpiles, Retrieved January 14, 2007, http://www.hhs.gov/nvpo/nvac/feb05.html and http://www.hhs.gov/nv po/nvac/documents/Wilder0205.ppt, 2005.
[25]	F. Zhou, S. Santoli, M. Messonnier, H. Yusuf, A. Shefer, S. Chu, L. Rodewald and R. Harpaz, Economic evaluation of the 7-vaccine routine childhood immunization schedule in the United States, 2001, Arch. Pediatr. Adolesc. Med., 159 (2005), 1136-1144. doi: 10.1001/archpedi.159.12.1136.

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