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2005, 2(1): 133-152. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2005.2.133

A Simple Epidemic Model with Surprising Dynamics

1. 

Department of Mathematics, Howard University, Washington D.C., 20059, United States

2. 

Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE) 8600 Rockville Pike, Bldg. 38A, Rm. 5N511N, Bethesda, MD 20894, United States

3. 

Department of Mathematical Sciences, Montclair State University, Upper Montclair, NJ 07043

4. 

Mathematics, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center, Arizona State University, PO Box 871904, Tempe, AZ 85287

Received  July 2004 Revised  August 2004 Published  November 2004

A simple model incorporating demographic and epidemiological processes is explored. Four re-parameterized quantities the basic demographic reproductive number ($\R_d$), the basic epidemiological reproductive number ($\R_0$), the ratio ($\nu$) between the average life spans of susceptible and infective class, and the relative fecundity of infectives ($\theta$), are utilized in qualitative analysis. Mathematically, non-analytic vector fields are handled by blow-up transformations to carry out a complete and global dynamical analysis. A family of homoclinics is found, suggesting that a disease outbreak would be ignited by a tiny number of infectious individuals.
Citation: F. Berezovskaya, G. Karev, Baojun Song, Carlos Castillo-Chavez. A Simple Epidemic Model with Surprising Dynamics. Mathematical Biosciences & Engineering, 2005, 2 (1) : 133-152. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2005.2.133
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