American Institute of Mathematical Sciences

Advanced
2009, 6(2): 363-376. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2009.6.363

Examination of a simple model of condom usage and individual withdrawal for the HIV epidemic

Jeff Musgrave 1, and  James Watmough 1,

1. 

Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, New Brunswick, E3B 5A3, Canada

Received  August 2007 Revised  April 2008 Published  March 2009

Since the discovery of HIV/AIDS there have been numerous mathematical models proposed to explain the epidemic of the disease and to evaluate possible control measures. In particular, several recent studies have looked at the potential impact of condom usage on the epidemic [1, 2, 3, 4]. We develop a simple model for HIV/AIDS, and investigate the effectiveness of condoms as a possible control strategy. We show that condoms can greatly reduce the number of outbreaks and the size of the epidemic. However, the necessary condom usage levels are much higher than the current estimates. We conclude that condoms alone will not be sufficient to halt the epidemic in most populations unless current estimates of the transmission probabilities are high. Our model has only five independent parameters, which allows for a complete analysis. We show that the assumptions of mass action and standard incidence provide similar results, which implies that the results of the simpler mass action model can be used as a good first approximation to the peak of the epidemic.
Keywords: disease transmission model, control reproduction number., epidemiology.
Mathematics Subject Classification: 92D3.
Citation: Jeff Musgrave, James Watmough. Examination of a simple model of condom usage and individual withdrawal for the HIV epidemic. Mathematical Biosciences & Engineering, 2009, 6 (2) : 363-376. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2009.6.363
[1]

Mahin Salmani, P. van den Driessche. A model for disease transmission in a patchy environment. Discrete and Continuous Dynamical Systems - B, 2006, 6 (1) : 185-202. doi: 10.3934/dcdsb.2006.6.185
[2]

Timothy C. Reluga, Jan Medlock, Alison Galvani. The discounted reproductive number for epidemiology. Mathematical Biosciences & Engineering, 2009, 6 (2) : 377-393. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2009.6.377
[3]

S.M. Moghadas. Modelling the effect of imperfect vaccines on disease epidemiology. Discrete and Continuous Dynamical Systems - B, 2004, 4 (4) : 999-1012. doi: 10.3934/dcdsb.2004.4.999
[4]

W.R. Derrick, P. van den Driessche. Homoclinic orbits in a disease transmission model with nonlinear incidence and nonconstant population. Discrete and Continuous Dynamical Systems - B, 2003, 3 (2) : 299-309. doi: 10.3934/dcdsb.2003.3.299
[5]

Wenzhang Huang, Maoan Han, Kaiyu Liu. Dynamics of an SIS reaction-diffusion epidemic model for disease transmission. Mathematical Biosciences & Engineering, 2010, 7 (1) : 51-66. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2010.7.51
[6]

Nguyen Huu Du, Nguyen Thanh Dieu. Long-time behavior of an SIR model with perturbed disease transmission coefficient. Discrete and Continuous Dynamical Systems - B, 2016, 21 (10) : 3429-3440. doi: 10.3934/dcdsb.2016105
[7]

Burcu Adivar, Ebru Selin Selen. Compartmental disease transmission models for smallpox. Conference Publications, 2011, 2011 (Special) : 13-21. doi: 10.3934/proc.2011.2011.13
[8]

Ping Yan. A frailty model for intervention effectiveness against disease transmission when implemented with unobservable heterogeneity. Mathematical Biosciences & Engineering, 2018, 15 (1) : 275-298. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2018012
[9]

Xia Wang, Yuming Chen. An age-structured vector-borne disease model with horizontal transmission in the host. Mathematical Biosciences & Engineering, 2018, 15 (5) : 1099-1116. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2018049
[10]

Wandi Ding. Optimal control on hybrid ODE Systems with application to a tick disease model. Mathematical Biosciences & Engineering, 2007, 4 (4) : 633-659. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2007.4.633
[11]

Tom Burr, Gerardo Chowell. The reproduction number $R_t$ in structured and nonstructured populations. Mathematical Biosciences & Engineering, 2009, 6 (2) : 239-259. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2009.6.239
[12]

Hui Cao, Yicang Zhou. The basic reproduction number of discrete SIR and SEIS models with periodic parameters. Discrete and Continuous Dynamical Systems - B, 2013, 18 (1) : 37-56. doi: 10.3934/dcdsb.2013.18.37
[13]

Yves Dumont, Frederic Chiroleu. Vector control for the Chikungunya disease. Mathematical Biosciences & Engineering, 2010, 7 (2) : 313-345. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2010.7.313
[14]

Olga Vasilyeva, Tamer Oraby, Frithjof Lutscher. Aggregation and environmental transmission in chronic wasting disease. Mathematical Biosciences & Engineering, 2015, 12 (1) : 209-231. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2015.12.209
[15]

Jing-Jing Xiang, Juan Wang, Li-Ming Cai. Global stability of the dengue disease transmission models. Discrete and Continuous Dynamical Systems - B, 2015, 20 (7) : 2217-2232. doi: 10.3934/dcdsb.2015.20.2217
[16]

Daifeng Duan, Cuiping Wang, Yuan Yuan. Dynamical analysis in disease transmission and final epidemic size. Communications on Pure and Applied Analysis, , () : -. doi: 10.3934/cpaa.2021150
[17]

Shunxiang Huang, Lin Wu, Jing Li, Ming-Zhen Xin, Yingying Wang, Xingjie Hao, Zhongyi Wang, Qihong Deng, Bin-Guo Wang. Transmission dynamics and high infectiousness of Coronavirus Disease 2019. Communications on Pure and Applied Analysis, , () : -. doi: 10.3934/cpaa.2021155
[18]

Mingtao Li, Guiquan Sun, Juan Zhang, Zhen Jin, Xiangdong Sun, Youming Wang, Baoxu Huang, Yaohui Zheng. Transmission dynamics and control for a brucellosis model in Hinggan League of Inner Mongolia, China. Mathematical Biosciences & Engineering, 2014, 11 (5) : 1115-1137. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2014.11.1115
[19]

Nicolas Bacaër, Xamxinur Abdurahman, Jianli Ye, Pierre Auger. On the basic reproduction number $R_0$ in sexual activity models for HIV/AIDS epidemics: Example from Yunnan, China. Mathematical Biosciences & Engineering, 2007, 4 (4) : 595-607. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2007.4.595
[20]

Gerardo Chowell, Catherine E. Ammon, Nicolas W. Hengartner, James M. Hyman. Estimating the reproduction number from the initial phase of the Spanish flu pandemic waves in Geneva, Switzerland. Mathematical Biosciences & Engineering, 2007, 4 (3) : 457-470. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2007.4.457

2018 Impact Factor: 1.313

Tools

Metrics

  • PDF downloads (31)
  • HTML views (0)
  • Cited by (7)

Other articles
by authors

[Back to Top]

Copyright © 2022 American Institute of Mathematical Sciences | Privacy Policy