Stability analysis and application of a mathematical cholera model

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2011, 8(3): 733-752. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2011.8.733

Stability analysis and application of a mathematical cholera model

1.	School of Mathematics and Statistics, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing 400067, China
2.	Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA 23529

Received July 2010 Revised September 2010 Published June 2011

Abstract
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In this paper, we conduct a dynamical analysis of the deterministic cholera model proposed in [9]. We study the stability of both the disease-free and endemic equilibria so as to explore the complex epidemic and endemic dynamics of the disease. We demonstrate a real-world application of this model by investigating the recent cholera outbreak in Zimbabwe. Meanwhile, we present numerical simulation results to verify the analytical predictions.

Keywords: cholera model., Stability, equilibrium, dynamical system.

Mathematics Subject Classification: Primary: 34D20, 92D3.

Citation: Shu Liao, Jin Wang. Stability analysis and application of a mathematical cholera model. Mathematical Biosciences & Engineering, 2011, 8 (3) : 733-752. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2011.8.733

References:

[1]	A. Alam, R. C. Larocque, J. B. Harris, et al., Hyperinfectivity of human-passaged Vibrio cholerae can be modeled by growth in the infant mouse,, Infection and Immunity, 73 (2005), 6674. doi: 10.1128/IAI.73.10.6674-6679.2005. Google Scholar
[2]	S. M. Blower and H. Dowlatabadi, Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of complex models of disease transmission: An HIV model, as an example,, International Statistical Review, 62 (1994), 229. doi: 10.2307/1403510. Google Scholar
[3]	V. Capasso and S. L. Paveri-Fontana, A mathematical model for the 1973 cholera epidemic in the european mediterranean region,, Revue Dépidémoligié et de Santé Publiqué, 27 (1979), 121. Google Scholar
[4]	C. Castillo-Chavez, Z. Feng and W. Huang, On the computation of $R_0$ and its role on global stability,, in, 125 (2002). Google Scholar
[5]	N. Chitnis, J. M. Cushing and J. M. Hyman, Bifurcation analysis of a mathematical model for malaria transmission,, SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics, 67 (2006), 24. doi: 10.1137/050638941. Google Scholar
[6]	C. T. Codeço, Endemic and epidemic dynamics of cholera: The role of the aquatic reservoir,, BMC Infectious Diseases, 1 (2001). Google Scholar
[7]	K. Dietz, The estimation of the basic reproduction number for infections diseases,, Statistical Methods in Medical Research, 2 (1993), 23. doi: 10.1177/096228029300200103. Google Scholar
[8]	J. Dushoff, W. Huang and C. Castillo-Chavez, Backwards bifurcation and catastrophe in simple models of fatal diseases,, Journal of Mathematical Biology, 36 (1998), 227. doi: 10.1007/s002850050099. Google Scholar
[9]	D. M. Hartley, J. G. Morris and D. L. Smith, Hyperinfectivity: A critical element in the ability of V. cholerae to cause epidemics?,, PLoS Medicine, 3 (2006), 63. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.0030007. Google Scholar
[10]	P. Hartman, "Ordinary Differential Equations,", John Wiley, (1980). Google Scholar
[11]	T. R. Hendrix, The pathophysiology of cholera,, Bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine, 47 (1971), 1169. Google Scholar
[12]	H. W. Hethcote, The mathematics of infectious diseases,, SIAM Review, 42 (2000), 599. doi: 10.1137/S0036144500371907. Google Scholar
[13]	G. A. Korn and T. M. Korn, "Mathematical Handbook for Scientists and Engineers: Definitions, Theorems, and Formulas for References and Review,", Dover Publications, (2000). Google Scholar
[14]	B. Li, Periodic orbits of autonomous ordinary differential equations: Theory and applications,, Nonlinear Analysis, 5 (1981), 931. doi: 10.1016/0362-546X(81)90055-9. Google Scholar
[15]	G. Li and J. Zhen, Global stability of an SEI epidemic model with general contact rate,, Chaos Solitons Fractals, 23 (2005), 997. Google Scholar
[16]	M. Y. Li, J. R. Graef, L. Wang and J. Karsai, Global dynamics of a SEIR model with varying total population size,, Mathematical Biosciences, 160 (1999), 191. doi: 10.1016/S0025-5564(99)00030-9. Google Scholar
[17]	M. Y. Li and J. S. Muldowney, Global stability for the SEIR model in epidemiology,, Mathematical Biosciences, 125 (1995), 155. doi: 10.1016/0025-5564(95)92756-5. Google Scholar
[18]	A. Lajmanovich and J. Yorke, A deterministic model for gonorrhea in a nonhomogeneous population,, Mathematical Biosciences, 28 (1976), 221. doi: 10.1016/0025-5564(76)90125-5. Google Scholar
[19]	J. B. Kaper, J. G. Morris and M. M. Levine, Cholera,, Clinical Microbiology Reviews \textbf{8} (1995), 8 (1995), 48. Google Scholar
[20]	H. K. Khalil, "Nonlinear Systems,", Prentice Hall, (1996). Google Scholar
[21]	A. A. King, E. L. Lonides, M. Pascual and M. J. Bouma, Inapparent infections and cholera dynamics,, Nature, 454 (2008), 877. doi: 10.1038/nature07084. Google Scholar
[22]	S. Marino, I. Hogue, C. J. Ray and D. E. Kirschner, A methodology for performing global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in system biology,, Journal of Theoretical Biology, 254 (2008), 178. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2008.04.011. Google Scholar
[23]	P. R. Mason, Zimbabwe experiences the worst epidemic of cholera in Africa,, Journal of Infection in Developing Countries, 3 (2009), 148. doi: 10.3855/jidc.62. Google Scholar
[24]	J. Mena-Lorca and H. W. Hethcote, Dynamic models of infectious diseases as regulator of population sizes,, Journal of Mathematical Biology, 30 (1992), 693. Google Scholar
[25]	D. S. Merrell, S. M. Butler, F. Qadri, et al., Host-induced epidemic spread of the cholera bacterium,, Nature, 417 (2002), 642. doi: 10.1038/nature00778. Google Scholar
[26]	S. M. Moghadas and A. B. Gumel, Global stability of a two-stage epidemic model with generalized non-linear incidence,, Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 60 (2002), 107. doi: 10.1016/S0378-4754(02)00002-2. Google Scholar
[27]	E. J. Nelson, J. B. Harris, J. G. Morris, S. B. Calderwood and A. Camilli, Cholera transmission: The host, pathogen and bacteriophage dynamics,, Nature Reviews: Microbiology, 7 (2009), 693. Google Scholar
[28]	R. M. Nisbet and W. S. C. Gurney, "Modeling Fluctuating Populations,", John Wiley & Sons, (1982). Google Scholar
[29]	M. Pascual, M. Bouma and A. Dobson, Cholera and climate: Revisiting the quantiative evidence,, Microbes and Infections, 4 (2002), 237. doi: 10.1016/S1286-4579(01)01533-7. Google Scholar
[30]	M. Pascual, K. Koelle and A. Dobson, Hyperinfectivity in cholera: A new mechanism for an old epidemiological model?,, PLoS Medicine, 3 (2006), 931. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.0030280. Google Scholar
[31]	E. Pourabbas, A. d'Onofrio and M. Rafanelli, A method to estimate the incidence of communicable diseases under seasonal fluctuations with application to cholera,, Applied Mathematics and Computation, 118 (2001), 161. doi: 10.1016/S0096-3003(99)00212-X. Google Scholar
[32]	T. C. Reluga, J. Medlock and A. S. Perelson, Backward bifurcation and multiple equilibria in epidemic models with structured immunity,, Journal of Theoretical Biology, 252 (2008), 155. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2008.01.014. Google Scholar
[33]	C. P. Simon and J. A. Jacquez, Reproduction numbers and the stability of equilibria of SI models for heterogeneous populations,, SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics, 52 (1992), 541. doi: 10.1137/0152030. Google Scholar
[34]	B. H. Singer and D. Kirschner, Influence of backward bifurcation on interpretation of $R_0$ in a model of epidemic tuberculosis with reinfection,, Mathematical Biosiences and Engineering, 1 (2004), 91. Google Scholar
[35]	D. Terman, An introduction to dynamical systems and neuronal dynamics,, in, (2005). Google Scholar
[36]	V. Tudor and I. Strati, "Smallpox, Cholera,", Tunbridge Wells: Abacus Press, (1977). Google Scholar
[37]	P. van den Driessche and J. Watmough, Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission,, Mathematical Biosciences, 180 (2002), 29. doi: 10.1016/S0025-5564(02)00108-6. Google Scholar
[38]	E. Vynnycky, A. Trindall and P. Mangtani, Estimates of the reproduction numbers of spanish influenza using morbidity data,, International Journal of Epidemiology, 36 (2007), 881. doi: 10.1093/ije/dym071. Google Scholar
[39]	J. Zhang and Z. Ma, Global dynamics of an SEIR epidemic model with saturating contact rate,, Mathematical Biosciences, 185 (2003), 15. doi: 10.1016/S0025-5564(03)00087-7. Google Scholar
[40]	Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Available from:, \url{http://www.cdc.gov}., (). Google Scholar
[41]	The Wikipedia, Available from:, \url{http://en.wikipedia.org}., (). Google Scholar
[42]	World Health Organization, Available from:, \url{http://www.who.org}., (). Google Scholar

show all references

References:

[1]	A. Alam, R. C. Larocque, J. B. Harris, et al., Hyperinfectivity of human-passaged Vibrio cholerae can be modeled by growth in the infant mouse,, Infection and Immunity, 73 (2005), 6674. doi: 10.1128/IAI.73.10.6674-6679.2005. Google Scholar
[2]	S. M. Blower and H. Dowlatabadi, Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of complex models of disease transmission: An HIV model, as an example,, International Statistical Review, 62 (1994), 229. doi: 10.2307/1403510. Google Scholar
[3]	V. Capasso and S. L. Paveri-Fontana, A mathematical model for the 1973 cholera epidemic in the european mediterranean region,, Revue Dépidémoligié et de Santé Publiqué, 27 (1979), 121. Google Scholar
[4]	C. Castillo-Chavez, Z. Feng and W. Huang, On the computation of $R_0$ and its role on global stability,, in, 125 (2002). Google Scholar
[5]	N. Chitnis, J. M. Cushing and J. M. Hyman, Bifurcation analysis of a mathematical model for malaria transmission,, SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics, 67 (2006), 24. doi: 10.1137/050638941. Google Scholar
[6]	C. T. Codeço, Endemic and epidemic dynamics of cholera: The role of the aquatic reservoir,, BMC Infectious Diseases, 1 (2001). Google Scholar
[7]	K. Dietz, The estimation of the basic reproduction number for infections diseases,, Statistical Methods in Medical Research, 2 (1993), 23. doi: 10.1177/096228029300200103. Google Scholar
[8]	J. Dushoff, W. Huang and C. Castillo-Chavez, Backwards bifurcation and catastrophe in simple models of fatal diseases,, Journal of Mathematical Biology, 36 (1998), 227. doi: 10.1007/s002850050099. Google Scholar
[9]	D. M. Hartley, J. G. Morris and D. L. Smith, Hyperinfectivity: A critical element in the ability of V. cholerae to cause epidemics?,, PLoS Medicine, 3 (2006), 63. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.0030007. Google Scholar
[10]	P. Hartman, "Ordinary Differential Equations,", John Wiley, (1980). Google Scholar
[11]	T. R. Hendrix, The pathophysiology of cholera,, Bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine, 47 (1971), 1169. Google Scholar
[12]	H. W. Hethcote, The mathematics of infectious diseases,, SIAM Review, 42 (2000), 599. doi: 10.1137/S0036144500371907. Google Scholar
[13]	G. A. Korn and T. M. Korn, "Mathematical Handbook for Scientists and Engineers: Definitions, Theorems, and Formulas for References and Review,", Dover Publications, (2000). Google Scholar
[14]	B. Li, Periodic orbits of autonomous ordinary differential equations: Theory and applications,, Nonlinear Analysis, 5 (1981), 931. doi: 10.1016/0362-546X(81)90055-9. Google Scholar
[15]	G. Li and J. Zhen, Global stability of an SEI epidemic model with general contact rate,, Chaos Solitons Fractals, 23 (2005), 997. Google Scholar
[16]	M. Y. Li, J. R. Graef, L. Wang and J. Karsai, Global dynamics of a SEIR model with varying total population size,, Mathematical Biosciences, 160 (1999), 191. doi: 10.1016/S0025-5564(99)00030-9. Google Scholar
[17]	M. Y. Li and J. S. Muldowney, Global stability for the SEIR model in epidemiology,, Mathematical Biosciences, 125 (1995), 155. doi: 10.1016/0025-5564(95)92756-5. Google Scholar
[18]	A. Lajmanovich and J. Yorke, A deterministic model for gonorrhea in a nonhomogeneous population,, Mathematical Biosciences, 28 (1976), 221. doi: 10.1016/0025-5564(76)90125-5. Google Scholar
[19]	J. B. Kaper, J. G. Morris and M. M. Levine, Cholera,, Clinical Microbiology Reviews \textbf{8} (1995), 8 (1995), 48. Google Scholar
[20]	H. K. Khalil, "Nonlinear Systems,", Prentice Hall, (1996). Google Scholar
[21]	A. A. King, E. L. Lonides, M. Pascual and M. J. Bouma, Inapparent infections and cholera dynamics,, Nature, 454 (2008), 877. doi: 10.1038/nature07084. Google Scholar
[22]	S. Marino, I. Hogue, C. J. Ray and D. E. Kirschner, A methodology for performing global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in system biology,, Journal of Theoretical Biology, 254 (2008), 178. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2008.04.011. Google Scholar
[23]	P. R. Mason, Zimbabwe experiences the worst epidemic of cholera in Africa,, Journal of Infection in Developing Countries, 3 (2009), 148. doi: 10.3855/jidc.62. Google Scholar
[24]	J. Mena-Lorca and H. W. Hethcote, Dynamic models of infectious diseases as regulator of population sizes,, Journal of Mathematical Biology, 30 (1992), 693. Google Scholar
[25]	D. S. Merrell, S. M. Butler, F. Qadri, et al., Host-induced epidemic spread of the cholera bacterium,, Nature, 417 (2002), 642. doi: 10.1038/nature00778. Google Scholar
[26]	S. M. Moghadas and A. B. Gumel, Global stability of a two-stage epidemic model with generalized non-linear incidence,, Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 60 (2002), 107. doi: 10.1016/S0378-4754(02)00002-2. Google Scholar
[27]	E. J. Nelson, J. B. Harris, J. G. Morris, S. B. Calderwood and A. Camilli, Cholera transmission: The host, pathogen and bacteriophage dynamics,, Nature Reviews: Microbiology, 7 (2009), 693. Google Scholar
[28]	R. M. Nisbet and W. S. C. Gurney, "Modeling Fluctuating Populations,", John Wiley & Sons, (1982). Google Scholar
[29]	M. Pascual, M. Bouma and A. Dobson, Cholera and climate: Revisiting the quantiative evidence,, Microbes and Infections, 4 (2002), 237. doi: 10.1016/S1286-4579(01)01533-7. Google Scholar
[30]	M. Pascual, K. Koelle and A. Dobson, Hyperinfectivity in cholera: A new mechanism for an old epidemiological model?,, PLoS Medicine, 3 (2006), 931. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.0030280. Google Scholar
[31]	E. Pourabbas, A. d'Onofrio and M. Rafanelli, A method to estimate the incidence of communicable diseases under seasonal fluctuations with application to cholera,, Applied Mathematics and Computation, 118 (2001), 161. doi: 10.1016/S0096-3003(99)00212-X. Google Scholar
[32]	T. C. Reluga, J. Medlock and A. S. Perelson, Backward bifurcation and multiple equilibria in epidemic models with structured immunity,, Journal of Theoretical Biology, 252 (2008), 155. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2008.01.014. Google Scholar
[33]	C. P. Simon and J. A. Jacquez, Reproduction numbers and the stability of equilibria of SI models for heterogeneous populations,, SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics, 52 (1992), 541. doi: 10.1137/0152030. Google Scholar
[34]	B. H. Singer and D. Kirschner, Influence of backward bifurcation on interpretation of $R_0$ in a model of epidemic tuberculosis with reinfection,, Mathematical Biosiences and Engineering, 1 (2004), 91. Google Scholar
[35]	D. Terman, An introduction to dynamical systems and neuronal dynamics,, in, (2005). Google Scholar
[36]	V. Tudor and I. Strati, "Smallpox, Cholera,", Tunbridge Wells: Abacus Press, (1977). Google Scholar
[37]	P. van den Driessche and J. Watmough, Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission,, Mathematical Biosciences, 180 (2002), 29. doi: 10.1016/S0025-5564(02)00108-6. Google Scholar
[38]	E. Vynnycky, A. Trindall and P. Mangtani, Estimates of the reproduction numbers of spanish influenza using morbidity data,, International Journal of Epidemiology, 36 (2007), 881. doi: 10.1093/ije/dym071. Google Scholar
[39]	J. Zhang and Z. Ma, Global dynamics of an SEIR epidemic model with saturating contact rate,, Mathematical Biosciences, 185 (2003), 15. doi: 10.1016/S0025-5564(03)00087-7. Google Scholar
[40]	Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Available from:, \url{http://www.cdc.gov}., (). Google Scholar
[41]	The Wikipedia, Available from:, \url{http://en.wikipedia.org}., (). Google Scholar
[42]	World Health Organization, Available from:, \url{http://www.who.org}., (). Google Scholar

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