Modelling  seasonal HFMD with the recessive infection in Shandong, China

Yangjun Ma; Maoxing Liu; Qiang Hou; Jinqing Zhao

doi:10.3934/mbe.2013.10.1159

Article Contents

2013, Volume 10, Issue 4: 1159-1171. Doi: 10.3934/mbe.2013.10.1159

This issue Previous Article Saturated treatments and measles resurgence episodes in South Africa: A possible linkage Next Article The impact of an imperfect vaccine and pap cytology screening on the transmission of human papillomavirus and occurrence of associated cervical dysplasia and cancer

Modelling seasonal HFMD with the recessive infection in Shandong, China

1.
Department of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030051
2.
Department of Mathematics, North University of China, School of Mechatronic Engineering, North University of China, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030051

Received: February 29, 2012

Revised: January 31, 2013

Published: May 2013

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Abstract

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is one of the major public-health problems in China. Based on the HFMD data of the Department of Health of Shandong Province, we propose a dynamic model with periodic transmission rates to investigate the seasonal HFMD. After evaluating the basic reproduction number, we analyze the dynamical behaviors of the model and simulate the HFMD data of Shandong Province. By carrying out the sensitivity analysis of some key parameters, we conclude that the recessive subpopulation plays an important role in the spread of HFMD, and only quarantining the infected is not an effective measure in controlling the disease.

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Mathematics Subject Classification: Primary: 34C25, 92D30; Secondary: 34K25.

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