Identifying requirements for the invasion of a tick species and tick-borne pathogen through TICKSIM

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2013, 10(3): 625-635. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2013.10.625

Identifying requirements for the invasion of a tick species and tick-borne pathogen through TICKSIM

Holly Gaff ^1, and Robyn Nadolny ^1,

1.	Department of Biological Sciences, Old Dominion University, 110 MGB, Norfolk, Virginia 23529, United States, United States

Received June 2012 Revised October 2012 Published April 2013

Abstract
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Ticks and tick-borne diseases have been on the move throughout the United State over the past twenty years. We use an agent-based model, TICKSIM, to identify the key parameters that determine the success of invasion of the tick and if that is successful, the succees of the tick-borne pathogen. We find that if an area has competent hosts, an initial population of ten ticks is predicted to always establish a new population. The establishment of the tick-borne pathogen depends on three parameters: the initial prevalence in the ten founding ticks, the probability that a tick infects the longer-lived hosts and the probability that a tick infects the shorter-lived hosts. These results indicate that the transmission rates to hosts in the newly established area can be used to predict the potential risk of disease to humans.

Keywords: tick-borne disease., Agent-based model.

Mathematics Subject Classification: Primary: 92B05; Secondary: 90B1.

Citation: Holly Gaff, Robyn Nadolny. Identifying requirements for the invasion of a tick species and tick-borne pathogen through TICKSIM. Mathematical Biosciences & Engineering, 2013, 10 (3) : 625-635. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2013.10.625

References:

[1]	B. E. Anderson, K. G. Sims, J. G. Olson, J. E. Childs and J. F. Piesman, Amblyomma americanum: A potential vector of human ehrlichiosis, American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 49 (1993), 239-244.
[2]	Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Summary of notifiable diseases - United States, 2006, MMWR, 55 (2008), 1-94.
[3]	J. E. Childs and C. D. Paddock, The ascendancy of Amblyomma americanum* as a vector of pathogens affecting humans in the United States*, Annual Review of Entomology, 48 (2003), 307-337.
[4]	F. S. Dahlgren, E. J. Mandel, J. W. Krebs, R. F. Massung and J. H. McQuiston, Increasing Incidence of Ehrlichia chaffeensis and Anaplasma phagocytophilum in the United States, 2000-2007, American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 85 (2011), 124-131.
[5]	S. A. Ewing, J. E. Dawson, A. A. Kocan, R. W. Barker, C. K. Warner, R. J. Panciera, J. C. Fox, K. M. Kocan and E. F. Bouin, Experimental transmission of Ehrlichia chaffeensis (Rickettsiales: Ehrlichieae) among white-tailed deer by Amblyomma americanum(Acari: Ixodidae), Journal of Medical Entomology, 32 (1995), 368-374.
[6]	D. B. Fishbein, J. E. Dawson and L. E. Robinson, Human ehrlichiosis in the United States, 1985 to 1990, Annals of Internal Medicine, 120 (1994), 736-743.
[7]	H. D. Gaff, Preliminary analysis of an agent based model for a tick-borne disease, Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 8 (2011), 463-473. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2011.8.463.
[8]	V. Grimm, U. Berger, D. L. DeAngelis, J. G. Polhill, J. Giske and S. F. Railsback, The ODD protocol: A review and first update, Ecological Modelling, 221 (2010), 2760-2768. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.08.019.
[9]	J. Goodman, D. Dennis and D. Sonenshine, Tick borne diseases of humans, American Society of Microbiology, (2005). doi: 10.1086/504876.
[10]	H. A. Merten and L. A. Durden, A state-by-state survey of ticks recorded from humans in the United States, Journal of Vector Ecology, 25 (2000), 102-113.
[11]	C. D. Paddock and J. E. Childs, Ehrlichia chaffeensis: A prototypical emerging pathogen, Clinical Microbiology Reviews, 16 (2003), 37-64.
[12]	C. D. Paddock and M. J. Yabsley, Ecological havoc, the rise of white-tailed deer, and the emergence of Amblyomma americanum-associated zoonoses in the United States, Current Topics in Microbiology and Immunology, 315 (2007), 289-324.
[13]	C. D. Patrick and J. A. Hair, White-tailed deer utilization of different habitats and its influence on lone star tick population, Journal of Parasitology, 64 (1978), 1100-1106. doi: 10.2307/3279735.
[14]	E. Y. Stromdahl, M. P. Randolph, J. J. O'Brien, and A. G. Gutierrez, Ehrlichia chaffeensis (Rickettsiales: Ehrlichieae) infection in Amblyomma americanum (Acari: Ixodidae) at Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland, Journal of Medical Entomology, 37 (2000), 349-356.

show all references

References:

[1]	B. E. Anderson, K. G. Sims, J. G. Olson, J. E. Childs and J. F. Piesman, Amblyomma americanum: A potential vector of human ehrlichiosis, American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 49 (1993), 239-244.
[2]	Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Summary of notifiable diseases - United States, 2006, MMWR, 55 (2008), 1-94.
[3]	J. E. Childs and C. D. Paddock, The ascendancy of Amblyomma americanum* as a vector of pathogens affecting humans in the United States*, Annual Review of Entomology, 48 (2003), 307-337.
[4]	F. S. Dahlgren, E. J. Mandel, J. W. Krebs, R. F. Massung and J. H. McQuiston, Increasing Incidence of Ehrlichia chaffeensis and Anaplasma phagocytophilum in the United States, 2000-2007, American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 85 (2011), 124-131.
[5]	S. A. Ewing, J. E. Dawson, A. A. Kocan, R. W. Barker, C. K. Warner, R. J. Panciera, J. C. Fox, K. M. Kocan and E. F. Bouin, Experimental transmission of Ehrlichia chaffeensis (Rickettsiales: Ehrlichieae) among white-tailed deer by Amblyomma americanum(Acari: Ixodidae), Journal of Medical Entomology, 32 (1995), 368-374.
[6]	D. B. Fishbein, J. E. Dawson and L. E. Robinson, Human ehrlichiosis in the United States, 1985 to 1990, Annals of Internal Medicine, 120 (1994), 736-743.
[7]	H. D. Gaff, Preliminary analysis of an agent based model for a tick-borne disease, Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 8 (2011), 463-473. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2011.8.463.
[8]	V. Grimm, U. Berger, D. L. DeAngelis, J. G. Polhill, J. Giske and S. F. Railsback, The ODD protocol: A review and first update, Ecological Modelling, 221 (2010), 2760-2768. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.08.019.
[9]	J. Goodman, D. Dennis and D. Sonenshine, Tick borne diseases of humans, American Society of Microbiology, (2005). doi: 10.1086/504876.
[10]	H. A. Merten and L. A. Durden, A state-by-state survey of ticks recorded from humans in the United States, Journal of Vector Ecology, 25 (2000), 102-113.
[11]	C. D. Paddock and J. E. Childs, Ehrlichia chaffeensis: A prototypical emerging pathogen, Clinical Microbiology Reviews, 16 (2003), 37-64.
[12]	C. D. Paddock and M. J. Yabsley, Ecological havoc, the rise of white-tailed deer, and the emergence of Amblyomma americanum-associated zoonoses in the United States, Current Topics in Microbiology and Immunology, 315 (2007), 289-324.
[13]	C. D. Patrick and J. A. Hair, White-tailed deer utilization of different habitats and its influence on lone star tick population, Journal of Parasitology, 64 (1978), 1100-1106. doi: 10.2307/3279735.
[14]	E. Y. Stromdahl, M. P. Randolph, J. J. O'Brien, and A. G. Gutierrez, Ehrlichia chaffeensis (Rickettsiales: Ehrlichieae) infection in Amblyomma americanum (Acari: Ixodidae) at Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland, Journal of Medical Entomology, 37 (2000), 349-356.

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