Identifying requirements for the invasion of a tick species and tick-borne pathogen through TICKSIM

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2013, 10(3): 625-635. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2013.10.625

Identifying requirements for the invasion of a tick species and tick-borne pathogen through TICKSIM

1.	Department of Biological Sciences, Old Dominion University, 110 MGB, Norfolk, Virginia 23529, United States, United States

Received June 2012 Revised October 2012 Published April 2013

Abstract
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Ticks and tick-borne diseases have been on the move throughout the United State over the past twenty years. We use an agent-based model, TICKSIM, to identify the key parameters that determine the success of invasion of the tick and if that is successful, the succees of the tick-borne pathogen. We find that if an area has competent hosts, an initial population of ten ticks is predicted to always establish a new population. The establishment of the tick-borne pathogen depends on three parameters: the initial prevalence in the ten founding ticks, the probability that a tick infects the longer-lived hosts and the probability that a tick infects the shorter-lived hosts. These results indicate that the transmission rates to hosts in the newly established area can be used to predict the potential risk of disease to humans.

Keywords: tick-borne disease., Agent-based model.

Mathematics Subject Classification: Primary: 92B05; Secondary: 90B1.

Citation: Holly Gaff, Robyn Nadolny. Identifying requirements for the invasion of a tick species and tick-borne pathogen through TICKSIM. Mathematical Biosciences & Engineering, 2013, 10 (3) : 625-635. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2013.10.625

References:

[1]	B. E. Anderson, K. G. Sims, J. G. Olson, J. E. Childs and J. F. Piesman, Amblyomma americanum: A potential vector of human ehrlichiosis,, American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 49 (1993), 239. Google Scholar
[2]	Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Summary of notifiable diseases - United States, 2006,, MMWR, 55 (2008), 1. Google Scholar
[3]	J. E. Childs and C. D. Paddock, The ascendancy of Amblyomma americanum* as a vector of pathogens affecting humans in the United States,, Annual Review of Entomology*, 48 (2003), 307. Google Scholar
[4]	F. S. Dahlgren, E. J. Mandel, J. W. Krebs, R. F. Massung and J. H. McQuiston, Increasing Incidence of Ehrlichia chaffeensis and Anaplasma phagocytophilum in the United States, 2000-2007,, American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 85 (2011), 124. Google Scholar
[5]	S. A. Ewing, J. E. Dawson, A. A. Kocan, R. W. Barker, C. K. Warner, R. J. Panciera, J. C. Fox, K. M. Kocan and E. F. Bouin, Experimental transmission of Ehrlichia chaffeensis (Rickettsiales: Ehrlichieae) among white-tailed deer by Amblyomma americanum(Acari: Ixodidae),, Journal of Medical Entomology, 32 (1995), 368. Google Scholar
[6]	D. B. Fishbein, J. E. Dawson and L. E. Robinson, Human ehrlichiosis in the United States, 1985 to 1990,, Annals of Internal Medicine, 120 (1994), 736. Google Scholar
[7]	H. D. Gaff, Preliminary analysis of an agent based model for a tick-borne disease,, Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 8 (2011), 463. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2011.8.463. Google Scholar
[8]	V. Grimm, U. Berger, D. L. DeAngelis, J. G. Polhill, J. Giske and S. F. Railsback, The ODD protocol: A review and first update,, Ecological Modelling, 221 (2010), 2760. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.08.019. Google Scholar
[9]	J. Goodman, D. Dennis and D. Sonenshine, Tick borne diseases of humans,, American Society of Microbiology, (2005). doi: 10.1086/504876. Google Scholar
[10]	H. A. Merten and L. A. Durden, A state-by-state survey of ticks recorded from humans in the United States,, Journal of Vector Ecology, 25 (2000), 102. Google Scholar
[11]	C. D. Paddock and J. E. Childs, Ehrlichia chaffeensis: A prototypical emerging pathogen,, Clinical Microbiology Reviews, 16 (2003), 37. Google Scholar
[12]	C. D. Paddock and M. J. Yabsley, Ecological havoc, the rise of white-tailed deer, and the emergence of Amblyomma americanum-associated zoonoses in the United States,, Current Topics in Microbiology and Immunology, 315 (2007), 289. Google Scholar
[13]	C. D. Patrick and J. A. Hair, White-tailed deer utilization of different habitats and its influence on lone star tick population,, Journal of Parasitology, 64 (1978), 1100. doi: 10.2307/3279735. Google Scholar
[14]	E. Y. Stromdahl, M. P. Randolph, J. J. O'Brien, and A. G. Gutierrez, Ehrlichia chaffeensis (Rickettsiales: Ehrlichieae) infection in Amblyomma americanum (Acari: Ixodidae) at Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland,, Journal of Medical Entomology, 37 (2000), 349. Google Scholar

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References:

[1]	B. E. Anderson, K. G. Sims, J. G. Olson, J. E. Childs and J. F. Piesman, Amblyomma americanum: A potential vector of human ehrlichiosis,, American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 49 (1993), 239. Google Scholar
[2]	Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Summary of notifiable diseases - United States, 2006,, MMWR, 55 (2008), 1. Google Scholar
[3]	J. E. Childs and C. D. Paddock, The ascendancy of Amblyomma americanum* as a vector of pathogens affecting humans in the United States,, Annual Review of Entomology*, 48 (2003), 307. Google Scholar
[4]	F. S. Dahlgren, E. J. Mandel, J. W. Krebs, R. F. Massung and J. H. McQuiston, Increasing Incidence of Ehrlichia chaffeensis and Anaplasma phagocytophilum in the United States, 2000-2007,, American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 85 (2011), 124. Google Scholar
[5]	S. A. Ewing, J. E. Dawson, A. A. Kocan, R. W. Barker, C. K. Warner, R. J. Panciera, J. C. Fox, K. M. Kocan and E. F. Bouin, Experimental transmission of Ehrlichia chaffeensis (Rickettsiales: Ehrlichieae) among white-tailed deer by Amblyomma americanum(Acari: Ixodidae),, Journal of Medical Entomology, 32 (1995), 368. Google Scholar
[6]	D. B. Fishbein, J. E. Dawson and L. E. Robinson, Human ehrlichiosis in the United States, 1985 to 1990,, Annals of Internal Medicine, 120 (1994), 736. Google Scholar
[7]	H. D. Gaff, Preliminary analysis of an agent based model for a tick-borne disease,, Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 8 (2011), 463. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2011.8.463. Google Scholar
[8]	V. Grimm, U. Berger, D. L. DeAngelis, J. G. Polhill, J. Giske and S. F. Railsback, The ODD protocol: A review and first update,, Ecological Modelling, 221 (2010), 2760. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.08.019. Google Scholar
[9]	J. Goodman, D. Dennis and D. Sonenshine, Tick borne diseases of humans,, American Society of Microbiology, (2005). doi: 10.1086/504876. Google Scholar
[10]	H. A. Merten and L. A. Durden, A state-by-state survey of ticks recorded from humans in the United States,, Journal of Vector Ecology, 25 (2000), 102. Google Scholar
[11]	C. D. Paddock and J. E. Childs, Ehrlichia chaffeensis: A prototypical emerging pathogen,, Clinical Microbiology Reviews, 16 (2003), 37. Google Scholar
[12]	C. D. Paddock and M. J. Yabsley, Ecological havoc, the rise of white-tailed deer, and the emergence of Amblyomma americanum-associated zoonoses in the United States,, Current Topics in Microbiology and Immunology, 315 (2007), 289. Google Scholar
[13]	C. D. Patrick and J. A. Hair, White-tailed deer utilization of different habitats and its influence on lone star tick population,, Journal of Parasitology, 64 (1978), 1100. doi: 10.2307/3279735. Google Scholar
[14]	E. Y. Stromdahl, M. P. Randolph, J. J. O'Brien, and A. G. Gutierrez, Ehrlichia chaffeensis (Rickettsiales: Ehrlichieae) infection in Amblyomma americanum (Acari: Ixodidae) at Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland,, Journal of Medical Entomology, 37 (2000), 349. Google Scholar

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