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Ebola outbreak in West Africa: real-time estimation and multiple-wave prediction
| 1. | Department of Mathematics, Southeast Missouri State University, Cape Girardeau, MO 63701, United States, United States |
References:
| [1] |
C. L. Althaus, Estimating the Reproduction Number of Ebola Virus (EBOV) During the 2014 Outbreak in West Africa, PLOS Currents Outbreaks, 2014.
doi: 10.1371/currents.outbreaks.91afb5e0f279e7f29e7056095255b288. |
| [2] |
D. G. Bausch, J. S. Towner, S. F. Dowell, et al., Assessment of the risk of Ebola virus transmission from bodily fluids and fomites, The Journal of Infectious Diseases, 196 (2007), S142-147.
doi: 10.1086/520545. |
| [3] |
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa - reported cases graphs, Available from: http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/cumulative-cases-graphs.html. (Last accessed on 18 March 2015.) |
| [4] |
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Ebola virus disease (EVD) information for clinicians in U.S. healthcare settings, Available from: http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/healthcare-us/preparing/clinicians.html. (Last accessed on 18 March 2015.) |
| [5] |
G. Chowell, L. Simonsen, C. Viboud and Y. Kuang, Is West Africa approaching a catastrophic phase or is the 2014 Ebola epidemic slowing down? Different models yield different answers for Liberia, PLOS Currents Outbreaks, (2014), 1-12.
doi: 10.1371/currents.outbreaks.b4690859d91684da963dc40e00f3da81. |
| [6] |
O. Diekmann, J. A. P. Heesterbeek and J. A. J. Metz, On the definition and the computation of the basic reproduction ratio $R_0$ in models for infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations, Journal of Mathematical Biology, 28 (1990), 365-382.
doi: 10.1007/BF00178324. |
| [7] |
Y. H. Hsieh and Y. S. Cheng, Real-time forecast of multiphase outbreak, Emerging Infectious Diseases, 12 (2006), 122-127.
doi: 10.3201/eid1201.050396. |
| [8] |
F. J. Richards, A flexible growth function for empirical use, Journal of Experimental Botany, 10 (1959), 290-301.
doi: 10.1093/jxb/10.2.290. |
| [9] |
P. van den Driessche and J. Watmough, Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission, Mathematical Biosciences, 180 (2002), 29-48.
doi: 10.1016/S0025-5564(02)00108-6. |
| [10] |
X.-S. Wang, J. Wu and Y. Yang, Richards model revisited: Validation by and application to infection dynamics, Journal of Theoretical Biology, 313 (2012), 12-19.
doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2012.07.024. |
| [11] |
World Health Organization, Ebola response roadmap situation report - 29 October 2014, Available from: http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/137376/1/roadmapsitrep_29Oct2014_eng.pdf?ua=1. (Last accessed on 18 March 2015.) |
| [12] |
World Health Organization, Situation reports with epidemiological data: Archive, Available from: http://apps.who.int/ebola/en/current-situation. (Last accessed on 18 March 2015.) |
show all references
References:
| [1] |
C. L. Althaus, Estimating the Reproduction Number of Ebola Virus (EBOV) During the 2014 Outbreak in West Africa, PLOS Currents Outbreaks, 2014.
doi: 10.1371/currents.outbreaks.91afb5e0f279e7f29e7056095255b288. |
| [2] |
D. G. Bausch, J. S. Towner, S. F. Dowell, et al., Assessment of the risk of Ebola virus transmission from bodily fluids and fomites, The Journal of Infectious Diseases, 196 (2007), S142-147.
doi: 10.1086/520545. |
| [3] |
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa - reported cases graphs, Available from: http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/cumulative-cases-graphs.html. (Last accessed on 18 March 2015.) |
| [4] |
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Ebola virus disease (EVD) information for clinicians in U.S. healthcare settings, Available from: http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/healthcare-us/preparing/clinicians.html. (Last accessed on 18 March 2015.) |
| [5] |
G. Chowell, L. Simonsen, C. Viboud and Y. Kuang, Is West Africa approaching a catastrophic phase or is the 2014 Ebola epidemic slowing down? Different models yield different answers for Liberia, PLOS Currents Outbreaks, (2014), 1-12.
doi: 10.1371/currents.outbreaks.b4690859d91684da963dc40e00f3da81. |
| [6] |
O. Diekmann, J. A. P. Heesterbeek and J. A. J. Metz, On the definition and the computation of the basic reproduction ratio $R_0$ in models for infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations, Journal of Mathematical Biology, 28 (1990), 365-382.
doi: 10.1007/BF00178324. |
| [7] |
Y. H. Hsieh and Y. S. Cheng, Real-time forecast of multiphase outbreak, Emerging Infectious Diseases, 12 (2006), 122-127.
doi: 10.3201/eid1201.050396. |
| [8] |
F. J. Richards, A flexible growth function for empirical use, Journal of Experimental Botany, 10 (1959), 290-301.
doi: 10.1093/jxb/10.2.290. |
| [9] |
P. van den Driessche and J. Watmough, Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission, Mathematical Biosciences, 180 (2002), 29-48.
doi: 10.1016/S0025-5564(02)00108-6. |
| [10] |
X.-S. Wang, J. Wu and Y. Yang, Richards model revisited: Validation by and application to infection dynamics, Journal of Theoretical Biology, 313 (2012), 12-19.
doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2012.07.024. |
| [11] |
World Health Organization, Ebola response roadmap situation report - 29 October 2014, Available from: http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/137376/1/roadmapsitrep_29Oct2014_eng.pdf?ua=1. (Last accessed on 18 March 2015.) |
| [12] |
World Health Organization, Situation reports with epidemiological data: Archive, Available from: http://apps.who.int/ebola/en/current-situation. (Last accessed on 18 March 2015.) |
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