Ebola outbreak in West Africa: real-time estimation and multiple-wave prediction

Xiang-Sheng  Wang; Luoyi  Zhong

doi:10.3934/mbe.2015.12.1055

Article Contents

2015, Volume 12, Issue 5: 1055-1063. Doi: 10.3934/mbe.2015.12.1055

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Ebola outbreak in West Africa: real-time estimation and multiple-wave prediction

Xiang-Sheng Wang^1, and
Luoyi Zhong^1,

1.
Department of Mathematics, Southeast Missouri State University, Cape Girardeau, MO 63701

Received: March 31, 2015

Revised: April 30, 2015

Published: May 2015

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Abstract

Based on the reported data until 18 March 2015 and numerical fitting via a simple formula of cumulative case number, we provide real-time estimation on basic reproduction number, inflection point, peak time and final outbreak size of ongoing Ebola outbreak in West Africa. From our simulation, we conclude that the first wave has passed its inflection point and predict that a second epidemic wave may appear in the near future.

Keywords:

Mathematics Subject Classification: Primary: 92B05; Secondary: 62P10.

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References

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